Publication Abstracts

Molina Bacca et al. 2023

Molina Bacca, E., M. Stevanović, L. Bodirsky, K. Karstens, D. Meng, C. Chen, D. Leip, C. Müller, S. Minoli, J. Heinke, and J. Jägermeyr, 2023: Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 284, doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z.

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between -1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{mo03400r,
  author={Molina Bacca, E. and Stevanović, M. and Bodirsky, L. and Karstens, K. and Meng, D. and Chen, C. and Leip, D. and Müller, C. and Minoli, S. and Heinke, J. and Jägermeyr, J.},
  title={Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming},
  year={2023},
  journal={Communications Earth and Environment},
  volume={4},
  pages={284},
  doi={10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - mo03400r
AU  - Molina Bacca, E.
AU  - Stevanović, M.
AU  - Bodirsky, L.
AU  - Karstens, K.
AU  - Meng, D.
AU  - Chen, C.
AU  - Leip, D.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Minoli, S.
AU  - Heinke, J.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
PY  - 2023
TI  - Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming
JA  - Commun. Earth Environ.
JO  - Communications Earth and Environment
VL  - 4
SP  - 284
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z
ER  -

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