Publication Abstracts

Manzini et al. 2014

Manzini, E., A.Y. Karpechko, J. Anstey, M.P. Baldwin, R.X. Black, C. Cagnazzo, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, B. Christiansen, P. Davini, E. Gerber, M. Giorgetta, L. Gray, S.C. Hardiman, Y.-Y. Lee, D.R. Marsh, B.A. McDaniel, A. Purich, A.A. Scaife, D. Shindell, S.-W. Son, S. Watanabe, and G. Zappa, 2014: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, no. 13, 7979-7998, doi:10.1002/2013JD021403.

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ma08900u,
  author={Manzini, E. and Karpechko, A. Y. and Anstey, J. and Baldwin, M. P. and Black, R. X. and Cagnazzo, C. and Calvo, N. and Charlton-Perez, A. and Christiansen, B. and Davini, P. and Gerber, E. and Giorgetta, M. and Gray, L. and Hardiman, S. C. and Lee, Y.-Y. and Marsh, D. R. and McDaniel, B. A. and Purich, A. and Scaife, A. A. and Shindell, D. and Son, S.-W. and Watanabe, S. and Zappa, G.},
  title={Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling},
  year={2014},
  journal={J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  volume={119},
  number={13},
  pages={7979--7998},
  doi={10.1002/2013JD021403},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ma08900u
AU  - Manzini, E.
AU  - Karpechko, A. Y.
AU  - Anstey, J.
AU  - Baldwin, M. P.
AU  - Black, R. X.
AU  - Cagnazzo, C.
AU  - Calvo, N.
AU  - Charlton-Perez, A.
AU  - Christiansen, B.
AU  - Davini, P.
AU  - Gerber, E.
AU  - Giorgetta, M.
AU  - Gray, L.
AU  - Hardiman, S. C.
AU  - Lee, Y.-Y.
AU  - Marsh, D. R.
AU  - McDaniel, B. A.
AU  - Purich, A.
AU  - Scaife, A. A.
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Son, S.-W.
AU  - Watanabe, S.
AU  - Zappa, G.
PY  - 2014
TI  - Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
VL  - 119
IS  - 13
SP  - 7979
EP  - 7998
DO  - 10.1002/2013JD021403
ER  -

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