Publication Abstracts

Marvel and Bonfils 2013

Marvel, K., and C. Bonfils, 2013: Identifying external influences on global precipitation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, no. 48, 19301-19306, doi:10.1073/pnas.1314382110.

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Marvel, K. and Bonfils, C.},
  title={Identifying external influences on global precipitation},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ma05010b
AU  - Marvel, K.
AU  - Bonfils, C.
PY  - 2013
TI  - Identifying external influences on global precipitation
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
VL  - 110
IS  - 48
SP  - 19301
EP  - 19306
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1314382110
ER  -

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