Publication Abstracts

Martre et al. 2015

Martre, P., D. Wallach, S. Asseng, F. Ewert, J.W. Jones, R.P. Rötter, K.J. Boote, A.C. Ruane, P.J. Thorburn, D. Cammarano, J.L. Hatfield, C. Rosenzweig, P.K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, B. Basso, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, N. Brisson, A.J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R.F. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L.A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R.C. Izaurralde, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Müller, S.N. Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T.M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C.O. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, J.W. White, and J. Wolf, 2015: Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: Many models are better than one. Glob. Change Biol., 21, no. 2, 911-925, doi:10.1111/gcb.12768.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Martre, P. and Wallach, D. and Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Jones, J. W. and Rötter, R. P. and Boote, K. J. and Ruane, A. C. and Thorburn, P. J. and Cammarano, D. and Hatfield, J. L. and Rosenzweig, C. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Angulo, C. and Basso, B. and Bertuzzi, P. and Biernath, C. and Brisson, N. and Challinor, A. J. and Doltra, J. and Gayler, S. and Goldberg, R. and Grant, R. F. and Heng, L. and Hooker, J. and Hunt, L. A. and Ingwersen, J. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Müller, C. and Kumar, S. N. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Osborne, T. M. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Ripoche, D. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Steduto, P. and Stöckle, C. O. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Travasso, M. and Waha, K. and White, J. W. and Wolf, J.},
  title={Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: Many models are better than one},
  journal={Glob. Change Biol.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ma03010z
AU  - Martre, P.
AU  - Wallach, D.
AU  - Asseng, S.
AU  - Ewert, F.
AU  - Jones, J. W.
AU  - Rötter, R. P.
AU  - Boote, K. J.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Thorburn, P. J.
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - Hatfield, J. L.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Aggarwal, P. K.
AU  - Angulo, C.
AU  - Basso, B.
AU  - Bertuzzi, P.
AU  - Biernath, C.
AU  - Brisson, N.
AU  - Challinor, A. J.
AU  - Doltra, J.
AU  - Gayler, S.
AU  - Goldberg, R.
AU  - Grant, R. F.
AU  - Heng, L.
AU  - Hooker, J.
AU  - Hunt, L. A.
AU  - Ingwersen, J.
AU  - Izaurralde, R. C.
AU  - Kersebaum, K. C.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Kumar, S. N.
AU  - Nendel, C.
AU  - O'Leary, G.
AU  - Olesen, J. E.
AU  - Osborne, T. M.
AU  - Palosuo, T.
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Ripoche, D.
AU  - Semenov, M. A.
AU  - Shcherbak, I.
AU  - Steduto, P.
AU  - Stöckle, C. O.
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.
AU  - Streck, T.
AU  - Supit, I.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Travasso, M.
AU  - Waha, K.
AU  - White, J. W.
AU  - Wolf, J.
PY  - 2015
TI  - Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: Many models are better than one
JA  - Glob. Change Biol.
VL  - 21
IS  - 2
SP  - 911
EP  - 925
DO  - 10.1111/gcb.12768
ER  -

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