Publication Abstracts

Mankin et al. 2018

Mankin, J.S., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A.P. Williams, and R.M. Horton, 2018: Blue water tradeoffs with vegetation in a CO2-enriched climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, no. 7, 3115-3125, doi:10.1002/2018GL077051.

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2. A single-model large ensemble identifies the occurrence of colocated warming- and CO2-induced leaf area index increases with summer soil moisture declines. This pattern of 'greening' and 'drying,' which occurs over 42% of global vegetated land area, is largely attributable to changes in the partitioning of precipitation at the land surface away from runoff and towards terrestrial vegetation ecosystems. Changes in runoff and ecosystem partitioning are inversely related, with changes in runoff partitioning being governed by changes in precipitation (mean and extremes) and ecosystem partitioning being governed by ecosystem water use and surface resistance to evapotranspiration (ET). Projections show that warming-influenced and CO2-enriched terrestrial vegetation ecosystems use water that historically would have been partitioned to runoff over 48% of global vegetated land areas, largely in Western North America, the Amazon, and Europe, many of the same regions with colocated 'greening' and 'drying.' These results have implications for how water available for people will change in response to anthropogenic warming, and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation-water responses to high CO2.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Mankin, J. S. and Seager, R. and Smerdon, J. E. and Cook, B. I. and Williams, A. P. and Horton, R. M.},
  title={Blue water tradeoffs with vegetation in a CO2-enriched climate},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ma00410k
AU  - Mankin, J. S.
AU  - Seager, R.
AU  - Smerdon, J. E.
AU  - Cook, B. I.
AU  - Williams, A. P.
AU  - Horton, R. M.
PY  - 2018
TI  - Blue water tradeoffs with vegetation in a CO2-enriched climate
JA  - Geophys. Res. Lett.
JO  - Geophysical Research Letters
VL  - 45
IS  - 7
SP  - 3115
EP  - 3125
DO  - 10.1002/2018GL077051
ER  -

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