Publication Abstracts

Liu et al. 2016

Liu, B., S. Asseng, C. Müller, F. Ewert, J. Elliott, D.B. Lobell, P. Martre, A.C. Ruane, D. Wallach, J.W. Jones, C. Rosenzweig, P.K. Aggarwal, P.D. Alderman, J. Anothai, B. Basso, C. Biernath, D. Cammarano, A. Challinor, D. Deryng, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, E. Fereres, C. Folberth, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, R.C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C.D. Jones, K.C. Kersebaum, B.A. Kimball, A.-K. Koehler, S.N. Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O'Leary, J.E. Olesen, M.J. Ottman, T. Palosuo, P.V.V. Prasad, E. Priesack, T.A.M. Pugh, M. Reynolds, E.E. Rezaei, R.P. Rötter, E. Schmid, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, E. Stehfest, C.O. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P. Thorburn, K. Waha, G.W. Wall, E. Wang, J.W. White, J. Wolf, Z. Zhao, and Y. Zhu, 2016: Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods. Nat. Clim. Change, 6, no. 12, 1130-1136, doi:10.1038/nclimate3115.

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1°C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Liu, B. and Asseng, S. and Müller, C. and Ewert, F. and Elliott, J. and Lobell, D. B. and Martre, P. and Ruane, A. C. and Wallach, D. and Jones, J. W. and Rosenzweig, C. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Alderman, P. D. and Anothai, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Cammarano, D. and Challinor, A. and Deryng, D. and De Sanctis, G. and Doltra, J. and Fereres, E. and Folberth, C. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jabloun, M. and Jones, C. D. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Kimball, B. A. and Koehler, A.-K. and Kumar, S. N. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Ottman, M. J. and Palosuo, T. and Prasad, P. V. V. and Priesack, E. and Pugh, T. A. M. and Reynolds, M. and Rezaei, E. E. and Rötter, R. P. and Schmid, E. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Stehfest, E. and Stöckle, C. O. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. and Waha, K. and Wall, G. W. and Wang, E. and White, J. W. and Wolf, J. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y.},
  title={Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods},
  journal={Nat. Clim. Change},

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RIS Citation

ID  - li04800g
AU  - Liu, B.
AU  - Asseng, S.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Ewert, F.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Lobell, D. B.
AU  - Martre, P.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Wallach, D.
AU  - Jones, J. W.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Aggarwal, P. K.
AU  - Alderman, P. D.
AU  - Anothai, J.
AU  - Basso, B.
AU  - Biernath, C.
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - Challinor, A.
AU  - Deryng, D.
AU  - De Sanctis, G.
AU  - Doltra, J.
AU  - Fereres, E.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Garcia-Vila, M.
AU  - Gayler, S.
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.
AU  - Hunt, L. A.
AU  - Izaurralde, R. C.
AU  - Jabloun, M.
AU  - Jones, C. D.
AU  - Kersebaum, K. C.
AU  - Kimball, B. A.
AU  - Koehler, A.-K.
AU  - Kumar, S. N.
AU  - Nendel, C.
AU  - O'Leary, G.
AU  - Olesen, J. E.
AU  - Ottman, M. J.
AU  - Palosuo, T.
AU  - Prasad, P. V. V.
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Pugh, T. A. M.
AU  - Reynolds, M.
AU  - Rezaei, E. E.
AU  - Rötter, R. P.
AU  - Schmid, E.
AU  - Semenov, M. A.
AU  - Shcherbak, I.
AU  - Stehfest, E.
AU  - Stöckle, C. O.
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.
AU  - Streck, T.
AU  - Supit, I.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Thorburn, P.
AU  - Waha, K.
AU  - Wall, G. W.
AU  - Wang, E.
AU  - White, J. W.
AU  - Wolf, J.
AU  - Zhao, Z.
AU  - Zhu, Y.
PY  - 2016
TI  - Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods
JA  - Nat. Clim. Change
VL  - 6
IS  - 12
SP  - 1130
EP  - 1136
DO  - 10.1038/nclimate3115
ER  -

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