Publication Abstracts

Lange et al. 2020

Lange, S., J. Volkholz, T. Geiger, F. Zhao, I. Vega, T. Veldkamp, C.P.O. Reyer, L. Warszawski, V. Huber, J. Jägermeyr, J. Schewe, D.N. Bresch, M. Büchner, J. Chang, P. Ciais, M. Dury, K. Emanuel, C. Folberth, D. Gerten, S.N. Gosling, M. Grillakis, N. Hanasaki, A.-J. Henrot, T. Hickler, Y. Honda, A. Ito, N. Khabarov, A. Koutroulis, W. Liu, C. Müller, K. Nishina, S. Ostberg, H. Müller Schmied, S.I. Seneviratne, T. Stacke, J. Steinkamp, W. Thiery, Y. Wada, S. Willner, H. Yang, M. Yoshikawa, C. Yue, and K. Frieler, 2020: Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. Earth's Future, 8, no. 12, e2020EF001616, doi:10.1029/2020EF001616.

The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five-fold increase in cross-category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Lange, S. and Volkholz, J. and Geiger, T. and Zhao, F. and Vega, I. and Veldkamp, T. and Reyer, C. P. O. and Warszawski, L. and Huber, V. and Jägermeyr, J. and Schewe, J. and Bresch, D. N. and Büchner, M. and Chang, J. and Ciais, P. and Dury, M. and Emanuel, K. and Folberth, C. and Gerten, D. and Gosling, S. N. and Grillakis, M. and Hanasaki, N. and Henrot, A.-J. and Hickler, T. and Honda, Y. and Ito, A. and Khabarov, N. and Koutroulis, A. and Liu, W. and Müller, C. and Nishina, K. and Ostberg, S. and Müller Schmied, H. and Seneviratne, S. I. and Stacke, T. and Steinkamp, J. and Thiery, W. and Wada, Y. and Willner, S. and Yang, H. and Yoshikawa, M. and Yue, C. and Frieler, K.},
  title={Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales},
  journal={Earth's Future},

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RIS Citation

ID  - la08500g
AU  - Lange, S.
AU  - Volkholz, J.
AU  - Geiger, T.
AU  - Zhao, F.
AU  - Vega, I.
AU  - Veldkamp, T.
AU  - Reyer, C. P. O.
AU  - Warszawski, L.
AU  - Huber, V.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Schewe, J.
AU  - Bresch, D. N.
AU  - Büchner, M.
AU  - Chang, J.
AU  - Ciais, P.
AU  - Dury, M.
AU  - Emanuel, K.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Gerten, D.
AU  - Gosling, S. N.
AU  - Grillakis, M.
AU  - Hanasaki, N.
AU  - Henrot, A.-J.
AU  - Hickler, T.
AU  - Honda, Y.
AU  - Ito, A.
AU  - Khabarov, N.
AU  - Koutroulis, A.
AU  - Liu, W.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Nishina, K.
AU  - Ostberg, S.
AU  - Müller Schmied, H.
AU  - Seneviratne, S. I.
AU  - Stacke, T.
AU  - Steinkamp, J.
AU  - Thiery, W.
AU  - Wada, Y.
AU  - Willner, S.
AU  - Yang, H.
AU  - Yoshikawa, M.
AU  - Yue, C.
AU  - Frieler, K.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales
JA  - Earth's Future
VL  - 8
IS  - 12
SP  - e2020EF001616
DO  - 10.1029/2020EF001616
ER  -

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