Publication Abstracts
Jones et al. 2013
Jones, M.R., A. Singels, and A. Ruane, 2013: Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa. Proc. S. African Sugar Technol. Assoc., 86, 184-189.
Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. The objective of this study was to evaluate a methodology for this by using the DSSAT-Canegro sugarcane model to simulate growth and development of sugarcane crops under typical management conditions at Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy for current ('baseline', 1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios. Future climate datasets were generated from three Global Climate Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm. GCM choice was based on the range of uncertainty of projected future rainfall at La Mercy (-11, +3 and +14%). The study found that irrigated yields are expected to increase at all three sites (15% at La Mercy, 10% at Pongola and 7% at Malelane), due to (i) increased interception of radiation due to accelerated canopy development and (ii) the direct [CO2] fertilisation effect on photosynthesis. Evapotranspiration increased by 6% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand, while irrigation requirements increased by ≃12%. Irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE, the increase in yield per unit irrigation applied) decreased by 6%, 11% and 12% at La Mercy, Pongola and Malelane, respectively. These results suggest that, at all sites, (i) economic returns on investment in irrigation could decline because of reduced IWUE; and (ii) increased irrigation capacity will be needed to achieve the increased yield potential of future irrigated sugarcane. For future climate impact studies it is recommended that high-temperature sensitivity of model processes be investigated further, and alternative GCM downscaling methods, which allow perturbations to the distribution (as well as amount) of rainfall, be explored.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{jo08100s,
author={Jones, M. R. and Singels, A. and Ruane, A.},
title={Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa},
year={2013},
journal={Proc. S. African Sugar Technol. Assoc.},
volume={86},
pages={184--189},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - CPAPER ID - jo08100s AU - Jones, M. R. AU - Singels, A. AU - Ruane, A. PY - 2013 TI - Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa JA - Proc. S. African Sugar Technol. Assoc. VL - 86 SP - 184 EP - 189 ER -
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