Publication Abstracts

Jones et al. 2021, in press

Jones, C.D., J.E. Hickman, S.T. Rumbold, J. Walton, R.D. Lamboll, R.B. Skeie, S. Fiedler, P. Forster, J. Rogelj, M. Abe, M. Botzet, K. Calvin, C. Cassou, J.N.S. Cole, P. Davini, M. Deushi, M. Dix, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, T. Ilyina, M. Kawamiya, M. Kelley, S. Kharin, T. Koshiro, H. Li, C. Mackallah, W.A. Müller, P. Nabat, T. van Noije, P. Nolan, R. Ohgaito, D. Olivié, N. Oshima, J. Parodi, T.J. Reerink, L. Ren, A. Romanou, R. Séférian, Y. Tang, C. Timmreck, J. Tjiputra, E. Tourigny, K. Tsigaridis, H. Wang, M. Wu, K. Wyser, S. Yang, Y. Yang, and T. Ziehn, 2021: The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophys. Res Lett., in press, doi:10.1029/2020GL091883.

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Twelve models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Jones, C. D. and Hickman, J. E. and Rumbold, S. T. and Walton, J. and Lamboll, R. D. and Skeie, R. B. and Fiedler, S. and Forster, P. and Rogelj, J. and Abe, M. and Botzet, M. and Calvin, K. and Cassou, C. and Cole, J. N. S. and Davini, P. and Deushi, M. and Dix, M. and Fyfe, J. C. and Gillett, N. P. and Ilyina, T. and Kawamiya, M. and Kelley, M. and Kharin, S. and Koshiro, T. and Li, H. and Mackallah, C. and Müller, W. A. and Nabat, P. and van Noije, T. and Nolan, P. and Ohgaito, R. and Olivié, D. and Oshima, N. and Parodi, J. and Reerink, T. J. and Ren, L. and Romanou, A. and Séférian, R. and Tang, Y. and Timmreck, C. and Tjiputra, J. and Tourigny, E. and Tsigaridis, K. and Wang, H. and Wu, M. and Wyser, K. and Yang, S. and Yang, Y. and Ziehn, T.},
  title={The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID19: Initial results from CovidMIP},
  journal={Geophys. Res Lett.},
  note={Manuscript accepted for publication}

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RIS Citation

ID  - jo06200a
AU  - Jones, C. D.
AU  - Hickman, J. E.
AU  - Rumbold, S. T.
AU  - Walton, J.
AU  - Lamboll, R. D.
AU  - Skeie, R. B.
AU  - Fiedler, S.
AU  - Forster, P.
AU  - Rogelj, J.
AU  - Abe, M.
AU  - Botzet, M.
AU  - Calvin, K.
AU  - Cassou, C.
AU  - Cole, J. N. S.
AU  - Davini, P.
AU  - Deushi, M.
AU  - Dix, M.
AU  - Fyfe, J. C.
AU  - Gillett, N. P.
AU  - Ilyina, T.
AU  - Kawamiya, M.
AU  - Kelley, M.
AU  - Kharin, S.
AU  - Koshiro, T.
AU  - Li, H.
AU  - Mackallah, C.
AU  - Müller, W. A.
AU  - Nabat, P.
AU  - van Noije, T.
AU  - Nolan, P.
AU  - Ohgaito, R.
AU  - Olivié, D.
AU  - Oshima, N.
AU  - Parodi, J.
AU  - Reerink, T. J.
AU  - Ren, L.
AU  - Romanou, A.
AU  - Séférian, R.
AU  - Tang, Y.
AU  - Timmreck, C.
AU  - Tjiputra, J.
AU  - Tourigny, E.
AU  - Tsigaridis, K.
AU  - Wang, H.
AU  - Wu, M.
AU  - Wyser, K.
AU  - Yang, S.
AU  - Yang, Y.
AU  - Ziehn, T.
PY  - 2021
TI  - The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID19: Initial results from CovidMIP
JA  - Geophys. Res Lett.
DO  - 10.1029/2020GL091883
ER  -

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