Publication Abstracts

Jägermeyr et al. 2021

Jägermeyr, J., C. Müller, A.C. Ruane, J. Elliott, J. Balkovic, O. Castillo, B. Faye, I. Foster, C. Folberth, J.A. Franke, K. Fuchs, J. Guarin, J. Heinke, G. Hoogenboom, T. Iizumi, A.K. Kain, D. Kelly, N. Khabarov, S. Lange, T.-S. Lin, W. Liu, O. Mialyk, S. Minoli, E.J. Moyer, M. Okada, M. Phillips, C. Porter, S. Rabin, C. Scheer, J.M. Schneider, J.F. Schyns, R. Skalsky, A. Smerald, T. Stella, H. Stephens, H. Webber, F. Zabel, and C. Rosenzweig, 2021: Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of projections. Nat. Food, 2, no. 11, 873-885, doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y.

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585) — explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections — before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ja00400o,
  author={Jägermeyr, J. and Müller, C. and Ruane, A. C. and Elliott, J. and Balkovic, J. and Castillo, O. and Faye, B. and Foster, I. and Folberth, C. and Franke, J. A. and Fuchs, K. and Guarin, J. and Heinke, J. and Hoogenboom, G. and Iizumi, T. and Kain, A. K. and Kelly, D. and Khabarov, N. and Lange, S. and Lin, T.-S. and Liu, W. and Mialyk, O. and Minoli, S. and Moyer, E. J. and Okada, M. and Phillips, M. and Porter, C. and Rabin, S. and Scheer, C. and Schneider, J. M. and Schyns, J. F. and Skalsky, R. and Smerald, A. and Stella, T. and Stephens, H. and Webber, H. and Zabel, F. and Rosenzweig, C.},
  title={Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of projections},
  year={2021},
  journal={Nat. Food},
  volume={2},
  number={11},
  pages={873--885},
  doi={10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ja00400o
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Balkovic, J.
AU  - Castillo, O.
AU  - Faye, B.
AU  - Foster, I.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Franke, J. A.
AU  - Fuchs, K.
AU  - Guarin, J.
AU  - Heinke, J.
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.
AU  - Iizumi, T.
AU  - Kain, A. K.
AU  - Kelly, D.
AU  - Khabarov, N.
AU  - Lange, S.
AU  - Lin, T.-S.
AU  - Liu, W.
AU  - Mialyk, O.
AU  - Minoli, S.
AU  - Moyer, E. J.
AU  - Okada, M.
AU  - Phillips, M.
AU  - Porter, C.
AU  - Rabin, S.
AU  - Scheer, C.
AU  - Schneider, J. M.
AU  - Schyns, J. F.
AU  - Skalsky, R.
AU  - Smerald, A.
AU  - Stella, T.
AU  - Stephens, H.
AU  - Webber, H.
AU  - Zabel, F.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
PY  - 2021
TI  - Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of projections
JA  - Nat. Food
VL  - 2
IS  - 11
SP  - 873
EP  - 885
DO  - 10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y
ER  -

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