Publication Abstracts

Collins et al. 2013

Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver, and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Doschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley, Eds. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1029-1136, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024.

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) presents an unprecedented level of information on which to base projections including new Earth System Models with a more complete representation of forcings, new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and more output available for analysis. New experiments and studies have continued to work towards a more complete and rigorous characterization of the uncertainties in long-term projections, but the magnitude of the uncertainties has not changed significantly since AR4.

Global mean temperatures will continue to rise over the 21st century if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue unabated. Temperature change will not be regionally uniform. It is virtually certain that, in most places, there will be more hot and fewer cold temperature extremes as global mean temperatures increase.

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BibTeX Citation

@inbook{ip08000i,
  author={Collins, M. and Knutti, R. and Arblaster, J. and Dufresne, J.-L. and Fichefet, T. and Friedlingstein, P. and Gao, X. and Gutowski, W. J. and Johns, T. and Krinner, G. and Shongwe, M. and Tebaldi, C. and Weaver, A. J. and Wehner, M.},
  editor={Stocker, T. F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S. K. and Doschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P. M.},
  title={Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility},
  booktitle={Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
  year={2013},
  pages={1029--1136},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press},
  address={Cambridge, UK},
  doi={10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CHAP
ID  - ip08000i
AU  - Collins, M.
AU  - Knutti, R.
AU  - Arblaster, J.
AU  - Dufresne, J.-L.
AU  - Fichefet, T.
AU  - Friedlingstein, P.
AU  - Gao, X.
AU  - Gutowski, W. J.
AU  - Johns, T.
AU  - Krinner, G.
AU  - Shongwe, M.
AU  - Tebaldi, C.
AU  - Weaver, A. J.
AU  - Wehner, M.
ED  - Stocker, T. F.
ED  - Qin, D.
ED  - Plattner, G.-K.
ED  - Tignor, M.
ED  - Allen, S. K.
ED  - Doschung, J.
ED  - Nauels, A.
ED  - Xia, Y.
ED  - Bex, V.
ED  - Midgley, P. M.
PY  - 2013
TI  - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
BT  - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
SP  - 1029
EP  - 1136
DO  - 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024
PB  - Cambridge University Press
CY  - Cambridge, UK
ER  -

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