Publication Abstracts

Hofer et al. 2024, accepted

Hofer, S., L.C. Hahn, J.K. Shaw, Z.S. McGraw, O. Bruno, F. Hellmuth, M. Pietschnig, I.A. Mostue, R.O. David, T. Carlsen, and T. Storelvmo, 2024: Realistic representation of mixed-phase clouds increases future climate warming. Commun. Earth Environ., accepted.

Clouds are the main source of uncertainties when projecting climate change. Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) that contain ice and supercooled-liquid particles are especially hard to constrain, and climate models neither agree on their phase nor their spatial extent. This is problematic, as models that underestimate contemporary supercooled-liquid in MPCs will underestimate future warming. Furthermore, it has recently been shown that supercooled-liquid water in MPCs is not homogeneously-mixed, neither vertically nor horizontally. However, while there have been attempts at observationally constraining MPCs to constrain uncertainties in future warming, all studies only use the phase of the interior of MPCs. Using novel satellite observations, and contrary to current knowledge, we show that MPCs are more liquid at the cloud top globally. We use these observations to constrain, for the first time, the cloud top phase in addition to the interior of MPCs in a global climate model, leading to +1°C more 21st century warming in NorESM2 SSP5-8.5 climate projections. We anticipate that the difference between cloud top and interior phase in MPCs is an important new target metric for future climate model development, because similar MPC-related biases in future warming are likely present in many climate models.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Hofer, S. and Hahn, L. C. and Shaw, J. K. and McGraw, Z. S. and Bruno, O. and Hellmuth, F. and Pietschnig, M. and Mostue, I. A. and David, R. O. and Carlsen, T. and Storelvmo, T.},
  title={Realistic representation of mixed-phase clouds increases future climate warming},
  journal={Communications Earth and Environment},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ho07900t
AU  - Hofer, S.
AU  - Hahn, L. C.
AU  - Shaw, J. K.
AU  - McGraw, Z. S.
AU  - Bruno, O.
AU  - Hellmuth, F.
AU  - Pietschnig, M.
AU  - Mostue, I. A.
AU  - David, R. O.
AU  - Carlsen, T.
AU  - Storelvmo, T.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Realistic representation of mixed-phase clouds increases future climate warming
JA  - Commun. Earth Environ.
JO  - Communications Earth and Environment
ER  -

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