Publication Abstracts

Horton et al. 2015

Horton, R., D.A. Bader, Y. Kushner, C. Little, R. Blake, and C. Rosenzweig, 2015: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate observations and projections. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 1336, 18-35, doi:10.1111/nyas.12586.

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity,and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1°C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmedand polar ice has retreated. These and other climatechanges are projected to accelerate as greenhousegas concentrations continue to rise.

In the coming decades, climate change is ex-tremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan regiond. Heat waves are very likely to increase; totala nnual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase.

Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management. Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding theirlikelihoods.

The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases forsuccessful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives.

This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ho00600i,
  author={Horton, R. and Bader, D. A. and Kushner, Y. and Little, C. and Blake, R. and Rosenzweig, C.},
  title={New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate observations and projections},
  year={2015},
  journal={Ann. New York Acad. Sci.},
  volume={1336},
  pages={18--35},
  doi={10.1111/nyas.12586},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CHAP
ID  - ho00600i
AU  - Horton, R.
AU  - Bader, D. A.
AU  - Kushner, Y.
AU  - Little, C.
AU  - Blake, R.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
PY  - 2015
TI  - New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate observations and projections
JA  - Ann. New York Acad. Sci.
VL  - 1336
SP  - 18
EP  - 35
DO  - 10.1111/nyas.12586
ER  -

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