Publication Abstracts

Hickman et al. 2022, submitted

Hickman, J., S. Bauer, K. Tsigaridis, and G. Faluvegi, 2022: Pandemic lockdown impacts on atmospheric composition and climate are often highly contingent on the decade and season in which they occur. Earth's Future, submitted.

COVID-19 pandemic responses affected atmospheric composition and climate. These effects are historically contingent, depending on current emissions and planetary conditions. Although using multiple scenarios is common in explorations of long-term climate change, they are rarely used to explore atmospheric composition or climate changes in response to transient emission perturbations on the scale of COVID-19 impacts. We used the GISS ModelE Earth System Model to evaluate how atmospheric and climate impacts depend on the decade and season in which lockdowns occurred. Global COVID-19-related anomalies in aerosols and trace gases differed by up to an order of magnitude or more when comparing lockdowns in 1980, 2008, 2020, and 2051. Regional atmospheric composition anomalies tended to be largest when emissions were near a historical peak: 1980 in Europe and temperate North America, 2008 or 2020 in eastern Asia, and 2051 in south Asia. Regional aerosol direct effect anomalies were almost always less than 0.1 W/m2 during the first pandemic year, though they were over 0.1 W/m2 in EURO and exceeded 0.2 (±0.04-0.08) W/m2 in EURO and TENA in 1980, generally changing in tandem with regional emissions. In contrast, direct effect anomalies in Asia were positive in 1980 and negative in 2008, suggesting they may be primarily determined by exogenous emissions. Shifting COVID-19 onset in 2020 by 3, 6, or 9 months also altered atmospheric composition on the order of 2 to 25% globally. In all scenarios, changes in surface temperature or precipitation appeared unrelated to local atmospheric compositional changes.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{hi04300i,
  author={Hickman, J. and Bauer, S. and Tsigaridis, K. and Faluvegi, G.},
  title={Pandemic lockdown impacts on atmospheric composition and climate are often highly contingent on the decade and season in which they occur},
  year={2022},
  journal={Earth's Future},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - UNPB
ID  - hi04300i
AU  - Hickman, J.
AU  - Bauer, S.
AU  - Tsigaridis, K.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Pandemic lockdown impacts on atmospheric composition and climate are often highly contingent on the decade and season in which they occur
JA  - Earth's Future
ER  -

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