Publication Abstracts

Heino et al. 2023

Heino, M., P. Kinnunen, W. Anderson, D.K. Ray, M.J. Puma, O. Varis, S. Siebert, and M. Kummu, 2023: Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields. Sci. Rep., 13, 3583, doi:10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2.

Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at the global scale for 1980-2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely hot and dry events have globally consistent negative effects on the yields of all inspected crop types. Extremely cold and wet conditions were observed to reduce crop yields globally too, although to a lesser extent and the impacts being more uncertain and inconsistent. Critically, we found that over the study period, the probability of co-occurring extreme hot and dry events during the growing season increased across all inspected crop types; wheat showing the largest, up to a six-fold, increase. Hence, our study highlights the potentially detrimental impacts that increasing climate variability can have on global food production.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{he05400t,
  author={Heino, M. and Kinnunen, P. and Anderson, W. and Ray, D. K. and Puma, M. J. and Varis, O. and Siebert, S. and Kummu, M.},
  title={Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields},
  year={2023},
  journal={Scientific Reports},
  volume={13},
  pages={3583},
  doi={10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - he05400t
AU  - Heino, M.
AU  - Kinnunen, P.
AU  - Anderson, W.
AU  - Ray, D. K.
AU  - Puma, M. J.
AU  - Varis, O.
AU  - Siebert, S.
AU  - Kummu, M.
PY  - 2023
TI  - Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields
JA  - Sci. Rep.
JO  - Scientific Reports
VL  - 13
SP  - 3583
DO  - 10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2
ER  -

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