Publication Abstracts

Haywood et al. 2020, accepted

Haywood, A.M., J.C. Tindall, H.J. Dowsett, A.M. Dolan, K.M. Foley, S.J. Hunter, D.J. Hill, W.-L. Chan, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, D. Chandan, W.R. Peltier, N. Tan, C. Contoux, G. Ramstein, X. Li, Z. Zhang, C. Guo, K.H. Nisancioglu, Q. Zhang, Q. Li, Y. Kamae, M.A. Chandler, L.E. Sohl, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, R. Feng, E.C. Brady, A.S. von der Heydt, M.L.J. Baatsen, and D.J. Lunt, 2020: A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2. Clim. Past, accepted.

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7°C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8°C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6% (range: 2%-13%). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3°C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50% greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3°C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Haywood, A. M. and Tindall, J. C. and Dowsett, H. J. and Dolan, A. M. and Foley, K. M. and Hunter, S. J. and Hill, D. J. and Chan, W.-L. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Stepanek, C. and Lohmann, G. and Chandan, D. and Peltier, W. R. and Tan, N. and Contoux, C. and Ramstein, G. and Li, X. and Zhang, Z. and Guo, C. and Nisancioglu, K. H. and Zhang, Q. and Li, Q. and Kamae, Y. and Chandler, M. A. and Sohl, L. E. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Feng, R. and Brady, E. C. and von der Heydt, A. S. and Baatsen, M. L. J. and Lunt, D. J.},
  title={A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2},
  journal={Clim. Past},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ha09910r
AU  - Haywood, A. M.
AU  - Tindall, J. C.
AU  - Dowsett, H. J.
AU  - Dolan, A. M.
AU  - Foley, K. M.
AU  - Hunter, S. J.
AU  - Hill, D. J.
AU  - Chan, W.-L.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Stepanek, C.
AU  - Lohmann, G.
AU  - Chandan, D.
AU  - Peltier, W. R.
AU  - Tan, N.
AU  - Contoux, C.
AU  - Ramstein, G.
AU  - Li, X.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Guo, C.
AU  - Nisancioglu, K. H.
AU  - Zhang, Q.
AU  - Li, Q.
AU  - Kamae, Y.
AU  - Chandler, M. A.
AU  - Sohl, L. E.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
AU  - Feng, R.
AU  - Brady, E. C.
AU  - von der Heydt, A. S.
AU  - Baatsen, M. L. J.
AU  - Lunt, D. J.
PY  - 2020
TI  - A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2
JA  - Clim. Past
ER  -

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