Publication Abstracts

Hansen et al. 2022, submitted

Hansen, J.E., M. Sato, L. Simons, L.S. Nazarenko, K. von Schuckmann, N.G. Loeb, M.B. Osman, P. Kharecha, Q. Jin, G. Tselioudis, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, J. Cao, and J. Li, 2022: Global warming in the pipeline. Oxford Open Clim. Change, submitted.

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ∼4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2%times$CO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone — after slow feedbacks operate — is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to "save" young people and future generations is return to Holocene-level global temperature. Three urgently required actions are: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) purposeful intervention to rapidly phase down present massive geoengineering of Earth's climate, and 3) renewed East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Hansen, J. E. and Sato, M. and Simons, L. and Nazarenko, L. S. and von Schuckmann, K. and Loeb, N. G. and Osman, M. B. and Kharecha, P. and Jin, Q. and Tselioudis, G. and Lacis, A. and Ruedy, R. and Russell, G. and Cao, J. and Li, J.},
  title={Global warming in the pipeline},
  journal={Oxford Open Clim. Change},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}

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RIS Citation

ID  - ha09020b
AU  - Hansen, J. E.
AU  - Sato, M.
AU  - Simons, L.
AU  - Nazarenko, L. S.
AU  - von Schuckmann, K.
AU  - Loeb, N. G.
AU  - Osman, M. B.
AU  - Kharecha, P.
AU  - Jin, Q.
AU  - Tselioudis, G.
AU  - Lacis, A.
AU  - Ruedy, R.
AU  - Russell, G.
AU  - Cao, J.
AU  - Li, J.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Global warming in the pipeline
JA  - Oxford Open Clim. Change
ER  -

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