Publication Abstracts

Hansen et al. 1984

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and D. Rind, 1984: Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases. In Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983, pp. 2796-2810.

Climate models indicate that global mean temperature should increase 3±1.5°C if atmospheric CO2 is doubled. A broad range of empirical evidence, ranging from the climate on other planets to paleoclimate and recent climate trends on the earth, is consistent with the climate sensitivities indicated by the climate models. After reviewing the evidence, we conclude that there is strong evidence that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will lead to a global climate warming of at least 1.5°C. Such an increase will correspond to a climate state near or beyond the range of human experience.

The time required to reach an effective doubling of atmospheric CO2 is reduced by trace gases such as methane and the cholorofluorocarbons, which have begun to increase at substantial rates during the past two decades. The contribution of trace gases to the atmospheric greenhouse effect is now comparable to that of CO2. If current trends of atmospheric composition continue, effective doubling of CO2 will occur in several decades. Based on the consensus estimate for climate sensitivity, it appears likely that substantial climate change due to the greenhouse warming will become apparent during the next 1-2 decades.

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BibTeX Citation

@inproceedings{ha06600q,
  author={Hansen, J. and Lacis, A. and Rind, D.},
  title={Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases},
  booktitle={Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983},
  year={1984},
  pages={2796--2810},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CPAPER
ID  - ha06600q
AU  - Hansen, J.
AU  - Lacis, A.
AU  - Rind, D.
PY  - 1984
TI  - Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases
BT  - Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983
SP  - 2796
EP  - 2810
ER  -

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