Publication Abstracts

Hall and Tippett 2017

Hall, T.M., and M. Tippett, 2017: Pacific hurricane landfalls on Mexico and SST. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 56, no. 3, 667-676, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0194.1.

A statistical model of northeastern Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed and used to estimate hurricane landfall rates along the coast of Mexico. Mean annual landfall rates for 1971-2014 are compared with mean rates for the extremely high northeastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) of 2015. Over the full coast, the mean rate and 5%-95% uncertainty range (in parentheses) for TCs that are category 1 and higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (C1+ TCs) are 1.24 (1.05, 1.33) yr-1 for 1971-2014 and 1.69 (0.89, 2.08) yr-1 for 2015 — a difference that is not significant. The increase for the most intense landfalls (category-5 TCs) is significant: 0.009 (0.006, 0.011) yr-1 for 1971-2014 and 0.031 (0.016, 0.036) yr-1 for 2015. The SST impact on the rate of category-5 TC landfalls is largest on the northern Mexican coast. The increased landfall rates for category-5 TCs are consistent with independent analysis showing that SST has its greatest impact on the formation rates of the most intense northeastern Pacific TCs. Landfall rates on Hawaii [0.033 (0.019, 0.045) yr-1 for C1+ TCs and 0.010 (0.005, 0.016) yr-1 for C3+ TCs for 1971-2014] show increases in the best estimates for 2015 conditions, but the changes are statistically insignificant.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ha01810z,
  author={Hall, T. M. and Tippett, M.},
  title={Pacific hurricane landfalls on Mexico and SST},
  year={2017},
  journal={J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol.},
  volume={56},
  number={3},
  pages={667--676},
  doi={10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0194.1},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ha01810z
AU  - Hall, T. M.
AU  - Tippett, M.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Pacific hurricane landfalls on Mexico and SST
JA  - J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol.
VL  - 56
IS  - 3
SP  - 667
EP  - 676
DO  - 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0194.1
ER  -

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