Publication Abstracts

Hall and Jewson 2007

Hall, T.M., and S. Jewson, 2007: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tellus, 59A, 486-498, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00240.x.

We present a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks from genesis site through lysis. To propagate tracks we use the means and variances of latitudinal and longitudinal displacements and model the remaining anomalies as autoregressive. Coefficients are determined by averaging near-neighbor historical track data, with "near" determined optimally by using jackknife out-of-sample validation to maximize the likelihood of the observations. The number of cyclones in a simulated year is sampled randomly from the historical record, and the cyclone genesis sites are simulated with a spatial probability density function using kernels with optimized bandwidths. Simulated cyclones suffer lysis with a probability again determined from optimal averaging of historical lysis rates. We evaluate the track model by comparing an ensemble of 1950-2003 simulations to the historical record using several diagnostics, including landfall rates. In most regions, but not all, the observations fall within the variability across the ensemble members, indicating that the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable. An intensity component to the TC model, necessary for risk assessment applications, is currently under development.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ha00310j,
  author={Hall, T. M. and Jewson, S.},
  title={Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks},
  year={2007},
  journal={Tellus},
  volume={59A},
  pages={486--498},
  doi={10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00240.x},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ha00310j
AU  - Hall, T. M.
AU  - Jewson, S.
PY  - 2007
TI  - Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks
JA  - Tellus
VL  - 59A
SP  - 486
EP  - 498
DO  - 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00240.x
ER  -

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