Publication Abstracts

Hall et al. 2021

Hall, T.M., J.P. Kossin, T. Thompson, and J. McMahon, 2021: US tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea-surface temperature. J. Climate, 34, no. 4, 1321-1335, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0342.1.

We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in U.S. TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North Atlantic Ocean (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as "relative SST." Testing confirms the model's ability to reproduce historical U.S. TC activity as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically varied signal in U.S. coastal activity. Florida's Gulf Coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity relative to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast and the U.S. East Coast will see little change.

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

BibTeX Citation

@article{ha00020s,
  author={Hall, T. M. and Kossin, J. P. and Thompson, T. and McMahon, J.},
  title={US tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea-surface temperature},
  year={2021},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={34},
  number={4},
  pages={1321--1335},
  doi={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0342.1},
}

[ Close ]

RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ha00020s
AU  - Hall, T. M.
AU  - Kossin, J. P.
AU  - Thompson, T.
AU  - McMahon, J.
PY  - 2021
TI  - US tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea-surface temperature
JA  - J. Climate
JO  - Journal of Climate
VL  - 34
IS  - 4
SP  - 1321
EP  - 1335
DO  - 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0342.1
ER  -

[ Close ]

• Return to 2021 Publications

• Return to Publications Homepage