Publication Abstracts

Hall et al. 2020, submitted

Hall, T.M., J.P. Kossin, T. Thompson, and J. McMahon, 2020: US tropical cyclone activity projected into the 2030s. J. Clim., submitted.

We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as "relative SST." Testing confirms the model's ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida's Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change to modest declines.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Hall, T. M. and Kossin, J. P. and Thompson, T. and McMahon, J.},
  title={US tropical cyclone activity projected into the 2030s},
  journal={J. Clim.},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}

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RIS Citation

ID  - ha00020s
AU  - Hall, T. M.
AU  - Kossin, J. P.
AU  - Thompson, T.
AU  - McMahon, J.
PY  - 2020
TI  - US tropical cyclone activity projected into the 2030s
JA  - J. Clim.
ER  -

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