Publication Abstracts

Guo et al. 2023

Guo, D., H. Wang, V.E. Romanovsky, A.M. Haywood, N. Pepin, U. Salzmann, J. Sun, Q. Yan, Z. Zhang, X. Li, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, R. Feng, G. Lohmann, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W. Chan, W.R. Peltier, D. Chandan, A.S. von der Heydt, C. Contoux, M.A. Chandler, N. Tan, Q. Zhang, S.J. Hunter, and Y. Kamae, 2023: Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 120, no. 36, e2301954120, doi:10.1073/pnas.2301954120.

Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts which may arise as permafrost degrades in the future, but existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded during past warm periods in Earth's history are helpful to explore potential future permafrost behavior, and to evaluate the uncertainty of future climate projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate near-surface (within ∼3-4 m) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (∼3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly restricted in spatial extent during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period and that the area was reduced by 93±3% compared to that during the pre-industrial. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes in future projections for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and give a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Guo, D. and Wang, H. and Romanovsky, V. E. and Haywood, A. M. and Pepin, N. and Salzmann, U. and Sun, J. and Yan, Q. and Zhang, Z. and Li, X. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Feng, R. and Lohmann, G. and Stepanek, C. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Chan, W. and Peltier, W. R. and Chandan, D. and von der Heydt, A. S. and Contoux, C. and Chandler, M. A. and Tan, N. and Zhang, Q. and Hunter, S. J. and Kamae, Y.},
  title={Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - gu09100t
AU  - Guo, D.
AU  - Wang, H.
AU  - Romanovsky, V. E.
AU  - Haywood, A. M.
AU  - Pepin, N.
AU  - Salzmann, U.
AU  - Sun, J.
AU  - Yan, Q.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Li, X.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
AU  - Feng, R.
AU  - Lohmann, G.
AU  - Stepanek, C.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Chan, W.
AU  - Peltier, W. R.
AU  - Chandan, D.
AU  - von der Heydt, A. S.
AU  - Contoux, C.
AU  - Chandler, M. A.
AU  - Tan, N.
AU  - Zhang, Q.
AU  - Hunter, S. J.
AU  - Kamae, Y.
PY  - 2023
TI  - Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 120
IS  - 36
SP  - e2301954120
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.2301954120
ER  -

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