Publication Abstracts

Goelzer et al. 2020, accepted

Goelzer, H., S. Nowicki, A. Payne, E. Larour, H. Seroussi, W.H. Lipscomb, J. Gregory, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Shepherd, E. Simon, C. Agosta, P. Alexander, A. Aschwanden, A. Barthel, R. Calov, C. Chambers, Y. Choi, J. Cuzzone, C. Dumas, T. Edwards, D. Felikson, X. Fettweis, N.R. Golledge, R. Greve, A. Humbert, P. Huybrechts, S. Le Clec'h, V. Lee, G. Leguy, C. Little, D.P. Lowry, M. Morlighem, I. Nias, A. Quiquet, M. Rückamp, N.-J. Schlegel, D. Slater, R. Smith, F. Straneo, L. Tarasov, R. van de Wal, and M. van den Broeke, 2020: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6. The Cryosphere, accepted.

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global-mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater runoff and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of CMIP5 global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100 with contributions of 89±51 mm and 31±16 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the southwest of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against a unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 mm and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{go04600m,
  author={Goelzer, H. and Nowicki, S. and Payne, A. and Larour, E. and Seroussi, H. and Lipscomb, W. H. and Gregory, J. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Shepherd, A. and Simon, E. and Agosta, C. and Alexander, P. and Aschwanden, A. and Barthel, A. and Calov, R. and Chambers, C. and Choi, Y. and Cuzzone, J. and Dumas, C. and Edwards, T. and Felikson, D. and Fettweis, X. and Golledge, N. R. and Greve, R. and Humbert, A. and Huybrechts, P. and Le Clec'h, S. and Lee, V. and Leguy, G. and Little, C. and Lowry, D. P. and Morlighem, M. and Nias, I. and Quiquet, A. and Rückamp, M. and Schlegel, N.-J. and Slater, D. and Smith, R. and Straneo, F. and Tarasov, L. and van de Wal, R. and van den Broeke, M.},
  title={The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6},
  year={2020},
  journal={The Cryosphere},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - go04600m
AU  - Goelzer, H.
AU  - Nowicki, S.
AU  - Payne, A.
AU  - Larour, E.
AU  - Seroussi, H.
AU  - Lipscomb, W. H.
AU  - Gregory, J.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Shepherd, A.
AU  - Simon, E.
AU  - Agosta, C.
AU  - Alexander, P.
AU  - Aschwanden, A.
AU  - Barthel, A.
AU  - Calov, R.
AU  - Chambers, C.
AU  - Choi, Y.
AU  - Cuzzone, J.
AU  - Dumas, C.
AU  - Edwards, T.
AU  - Felikson, D.
AU  - Fettweis, X.
AU  - Golledge, N. R.
AU  - Greve, R.
AU  - Humbert, A.
AU  - Huybrechts, P.
AU  - Le Clec'h, S.
AU  - Lee, V.
AU  - Leguy, G.
AU  - Little, C.
AU  - Lowry, D. P.
AU  - Morlighem, M.
AU  - Nias, I.
AU  - Quiquet, A.
AU  - Rückamp, M.
AU  - Schlegel, N.-J.
AU  - Slater, D.
AU  - Smith, R.
AU  - Straneo, F.
AU  - Tarasov, L.
AU  - van de Wal, R.
AU  - van den Broeke, M.
PY  - 2020
TI  - The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
JA  - The Cryosphere
ER  -

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