Publication Abstracts

Gerten et al. 2020

Gerten, D., V. Heck, J. Jägermeyr, B.L. Bodirsky, I. Fetzer, M. Jalava, M. Kummu, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, S. Schaphoff, and H.J. Schellnhuber, 2020: Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nature Sustain., early on-line, doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1.

Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ge07200b,
  author={Gerten, D. and Heck, V. and Jägermeyr, J. and Bodirsky, B. L. and Fetzer, I. and Jalava, M. and Kummu, M. and Lucht, W. and Rockström, J. and Schaphoff, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J.},
  title={Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries},
  year={2020},
  journal={Nature Sustain.},
  doi={10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ge07200b
AU  - Gerten, D.
AU  - Heck, V.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Bodirsky, B. L.
AU  - Fetzer, I.
AU  - Jalava, M.
AU  - Kummu, M.
AU  - Lucht, W.
AU  - Rockström, J.
AU  - Schaphoff, S.
AU  - Schellnhuber, H. J.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
JA  - Nature Sustain.
DO  - 10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1
ER  -

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