Publication Abstracts

Frieler et al. 2017

Frieler, K., B. Schauberger, A. Arneth, J. Balkovic, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, D. Deryng, J. Elliott, C. Folberth, N. Khabarov, C. Müller, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, S. Schaphoff, J. Schewe, E. Schmid, L. Warszawski, and A. Levermann, 2017: Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability. Earth's Future, 5, no. 6, 605-616, doi:10.1002/2016EF000525.

Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the US. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{fr02300g,
  author={Frieler, K. and Schauberger, B. and Arneth, A. and Balkovic, J. and Chryssanthacopoulos, J. and Deryng, D. and Elliott, J. and Folberth, C. and Khabarov, N. and Müller, C. and Olin, S. and Pugh, T. A. M. and Schaphoff, S. and Schewe, J. and Schmid, E. and Warszawski, L. and Levermann, A.},
  title={Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability},
  year={2017},
  journal={Earth's Future},
  volume={5},
  number={6},
  pages={605--616},
  doi={10.1002/2016EF000525},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - fr02300g
AU  - Frieler, K.
AU  - Schauberger, B.
AU  - Arneth, A.
AU  - Balkovic, J.
AU  - Chryssanthacopoulos, J.
AU  - Deryng, D.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Khabarov, N.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Olin, S.
AU  - Pugh, T. A. M.
AU  - Schaphoff, S.
AU  - Schewe, J.
AU  - Schmid, E.
AU  - Warszawski, L.
AU  - Levermann, A.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability
JA  - Earth's Future
VL  - 5
IS  - 6
SP  - 605
EP  - 616
DO  - 10.1002/2016EF000525
ER  -

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