Publication Abstracts

Frieler et al. 2017

Frieler, K., S. Lange, F. Piontek, C.P.O. Reyer, J. Schewe, L. Warszawski, F. Zhao, L. Chini, S. Denvil, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, K. Halladay, G. Hurtt, M. Mengel, D. Murakami, S. Ostberg, A. Popp, R. Riva, M. Stevanovic, T. Suzuki, J. Volkholz, E. Burke, P. Ciais, K. Ebi, T.D. Eddy, J. Elliott, E. Galbraith, S.N. Gosling, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, J. Hinkel, C. Hof, V. Huber, J. Jägermeyr, V. Krysanova, R. Marcé, H. Müller Schmied, I. Mouratiadou, D. Pierson, D.P. Tittensor, R. Vautard, M. van Vliet, M.F. Biber, R.A. Betts, B.L. Bodirsky, D. Deryng, S. Frolking, C.D. Jones, H.K. Lotze, H. Lotze-Campen, R. Sahajpal, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, and Y. Yamagata, 2017: Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming — Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321-4345, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017.

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Frieler, K. and Lange, S. and Piontek, F. and Reyer, C. P. O. and Schewe, J. and Warszawski, L. and Zhao, F. and Chini, L. and Denvil, S. and Emanuel, K. and Geiger, T. and Halladay, K. and Hurtt, G. and Mengel, M. and Murakami, D. and Ostberg, S. and Popp, A. and Riva, R. and Stevanovic, M. and Suzuki, T. and Volkholz, J. and Burke, E. and Ciais, P. and Ebi, K. and Eddy, T. D. and Elliott, J. and Galbraith, E. and Gosling, S. N. and Hattermann, F. and Hickler, T. and Hinkel, J. and Hof, C. and Huber, V. and Jägermeyr, J. and Krysanova, V. and Marcé, R. and Müller Schmied, H. and Mouratiadou, I. and Pierson, D. and Tittensor, D. P. and Vautard, R. and van Vliet, M. and Biber, M. F. and Betts, R. A. and Bodirsky, B. L. and Deryng, D. and Frolking, S. and Jones, C. D. and Lotze, H. K. and Lotze-Campen, H. and Sahajpal, R. and Thonicke, K. and Tian, H. and Yamagata, Y.},
  title={Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming — Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)},
  journal={Geosci. Model Dev.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - fr01300f
AU  - Frieler, K.
AU  - Lange, S.
AU  - Piontek, F.
AU  - Reyer, C. P. O.
AU  - Schewe, J.
AU  - Warszawski, L.
AU  - Zhao, F.
AU  - Chini, L.
AU  - Denvil, S.
AU  - Emanuel, K.
AU  - Geiger, T.
AU  - Halladay, K.
AU  - Hurtt, G.
AU  - Mengel, M.
AU  - Murakami, D.
AU  - Ostberg, S.
AU  - Popp, A.
AU  - Riva, R.
AU  - Stevanovic, M.
AU  - Suzuki, T.
AU  - Volkholz, J.
AU  - Burke, E.
AU  - Ciais, P.
AU  - Ebi, K.
AU  - Eddy, T. D.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Galbraith, E.
AU  - Gosling, S. N.
AU  - Hattermann, F.
AU  - Hickler, T.
AU  - Hinkel, J.
AU  - Hof, C.
AU  - Huber, V.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Krysanova, V.
AU  - Marcé, R.
AU  - Müller Schmied, H.
AU  - Mouratiadou, I.
AU  - Pierson, D.
AU  - Tittensor, D. P.
AU  - Vautard, R.
AU  - van Vliet, M.
AU  - Biber, M. F.
AU  - Betts, R. A.
AU  - Bodirsky, B. L.
AU  - Deryng, D.
AU  - Frolking, S.
AU  - Jones, C. D.
AU  - Lotze, H. K.
AU  - Lotze-Campen, H.
AU  - Sahajpal, R.
AU  - Thonicke, K.
AU  - Tian, H.
AU  - Yamagata, Y.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming — Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
JA  - Geosci. Model Dev.
VL  - 10
SP  - 4321
EP  - 4345
DO  - 10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
ER  -

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