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Elliott et al. 2014

Elliott, J., D. Deryng, C. Müller, K. Frieler, M. Konzmann, D. Gerten, M. Glotter, M. Flörke, Y. Wada, N. Best, S. Eisner, B.M. Fekete, C. Folberth, I. Foster, S.N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, F. Ludwig, Y. Masaki, S. Olin, C. Rosenzweig, A.C. Ruane, Y. Satoh, E. Schmid, T. Stacke, Q. Tang, and D. Wisser, 2014: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, no. 9, 3239-3244, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110.

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO₂ fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

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@article{el08000k,
  author={Elliott, J. and Deryng, D. and Müller, C. and Frieler, K. and Konzmann, M. and Gerten, D. and Glotter, M. and Flörke, M. and Wada, Y. and Best, N. and Eisner, S. and Fekete, B. M. and Folberth, C. and Foster, I. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Ludwig, F. and Masaki, Y. and Olin, S. and Rosenzweig, C. and Ruane, A. C. and Satoh, Y. and Schmid, E. and Stacke, T. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D.},
  title={Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change},
  year={2014},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={111},
  number={9},
  pages={3239--3244},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.1222474110},
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - el08000k
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Deryng, D.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Frieler, K.
AU  - Konzmann, M.
AU  - Gerten, D.
AU  - Glotter, M.
AU  - Flörke, M.
AU  - Wada, Y.
AU  - Best, N.
AU  - Eisner, S.
AU  - Fekete, B. M.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Foster, I.
AU  - Gosling, S. N.
AU  - Haddeland, I.
AU  - Khabarov, N.
AU  - Ludwig, F.
AU  - Masaki, Y.
AU  - Olin, S.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Satoh, Y.
AU  - Schmid, E.
AU  - Stacke, T.
AU  - Tang, Q.
AU  - Wisser, D.
PY  - 2014
TI  - Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
VL  - 111
IS  - 9
SP  - 3239
EP  - 3244
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1222474110
ER  -

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