Publication Abstracts

Elliott and Müller 2015

Elliott, J., and C. Müller, 2015: The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). In Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1. C. Rosenzweig and D. Hillel, Eds., ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3. Imperial College Press, pp. 175-190, doi:10.1142/9781783265640_0007.

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events. These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security.

Global-scale evaluation of crop prductivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results. Thee models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, enviromental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions.

Due to data limitation, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regardig prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling.

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BibTeX Citation

@inbook{el01100l,
  author={Elliott, J. and Müller, C.},
  editor={Rosenzweig, C. and Hillel, D.},
  title={The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)},
  booktitle={Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1},
  year={2015},
  pages={175--190},
  publisher={Imperial College Press},
  address={London},
  series={ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3},
  doi={10.1142/9781783265640_0007},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CHAP
ID  - el01100l
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Müller, C.
ED  - Rosenzweig, C.
ED  - Hillel, D.
PY  - 2015
TI  - The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)
BT  - Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1
T3  - ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3
SP  - 175
EP  - 190
DO  - 10.1142/9781783265640_0007
PB  - Imperial College Press
CY  - London
ER  -

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