Publication Abstracts
Dunne et al. 2020
Dunne, J.P., M. Winton, J. Bacmeister, G. Danabasoglu, A. Gettelman, J.-C. Golaz, C. Hannay, , J.P. Krasting, L.R. Leung, , L.A. Sentman, R.J. Stouffer, and Wolfe J. D., 2020: Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, no. 16, e2020GL088852, doi:10.1029/2020GL088852.
We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8%±13%) and long (-14%±8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2%±14%) and long (-8%±10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4%±11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{du09100t,
author={Dunne, J. P. and Winton, M. and Bacmeister, J. and Danabasoglu, G. and Gettelman, A. and Golaz, J.-C. and Hannay, C. and Schmidt, G. A. and Krasting, J. P. and Leung, L. R. and Nazarenko, L. and Sentman, L. A. and Stouffer, R. J. and Wolfe J. D.},
title={Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations},
year={2020},
journal={Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume={47},
number={16},
pages={e2020GL088852},
doi={10.1029/2020GL088852},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - du09100t AU - Dunne, J. P. AU - Winton, M. AU - Bacmeister, J. AU - Danabasoglu, G. AU - Gettelman, A. AU - Golaz, J.-C. AU - Hannay, C. AU - Schmidt, G. A. AU - Krasting, J. P. AU - Leung, L. R. AU - Nazarenko, L. AU - Sentman, L. A. AU - Stouffer, R. J. AU - Wolfe J. D. PY - 2020 TI - Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations JA - Geophys. Res. Lett. VL - 47 IS - 16 SP - e2020GL088852 DO - 10.1029/2020GL088852 ER -
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