Publication Abstracts

Dunne et al. 2020, in press

Dunne, J.P., M. Winton, J. Bacmeister, G. Danabasoglu, A. Gettelman, J.-C. Golaz, C. Hannay, G.A. Schmidt, J.P. Krasting, L.R. Leung, L. Nazarenko, L.A. Sentman, R.J. Stouffer, and Wolfe J. D., 2020: Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press, doi:10.1029/2020GL088852.

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8%±13%) and long (-14%±8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2%±14%) and long (-8%±10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4%±11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{du09100t,
  author={Dunne, J. P. and Winton, M. and Bacmeister, J. and Danabasoglu, G. and Gettelman, A. and Golaz, J.-C. and Hannay, C. and Schmidt, G. A. and Krasting, J. P. and Leung, L. R. and Nazarenko, L. and Sentman, L. A. and Stouffer, R. J. and Wolfe J. D.},
  title={Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations},
  year={2020},
  journal={Geophys. Res. Lett.},
  doi={10.1029/2020GL088852},
  note={Manuscript accepted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - du09100t
AU  - Dunne, J. P.
AU  - Winton, M.
AU  - Bacmeister, J.
AU  - Danabasoglu, G.
AU  - Gettelman, A.
AU  - Golaz, J.-C.
AU  - Hannay, C.
AU  - Schmidt, G. A.
AU  - Krasting, J. P.
AU  - Leung, L. R.
AU  - Nazarenko, L.
AU  - Sentman, L. A.
AU  - Stouffer, R. J.
AU  - Wolfe J. D.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations
JA  - Geophys. Res. Lett.
DO  - 10.1029/2020GL088852
ER  -

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