Publication Abstracts

Diffenbaugh et al. 2018

Diffenbaugh, N.S., D. Singh, and J.S. Mankin, 2018: Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments. Sci. Adv., 4, no. 2, eaao3354, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao3354.

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ∼50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas — including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics — still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{di07100r,
  author={Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Singh, D. and Mankin, J. S.},
  title={Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments},
  year={2018},
  journal={Sci. Adv.},
  volume={4},
  number={2},
  pages={eaao3354},
  doi={10.1126/sciadv.aao3354},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - di07100r
AU  - Diffenbaugh, N. S.
AU  - Singh, D.
AU  - Mankin, J. S.
PY  - 2018
TI  - Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments
JA  - Sci. Adv.
VL  - 4
IS  - 2
SP  - eaao3354
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aao3354
ER  -

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