Publication Abstracts

Cook et al. 2020, in press

Cook, B.I., S.S. McDermid, M.J. Puma, A.P. Williams, R. Seager, M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko, and I. Aleinov, 2020: Divergent regional climate consequences of maintaining current irrigation rates in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., in press, doi:10.1029/2019JD031814.

There is strong evidence that the expansion and intensification of irrigation over the 20th century has affected climate in many regions. However, it remains uncertain if these irrigation effects, including buffered warming trends, will weaken or persist under future climate change conditions. Using a large climate model ensemble, we demonstrate that irrigation will continue to attenuate greenhouse gas forced warming and soil moisture drying in many regions over the 2 st century, including Mexico, the Mediterranean, Southwest Asia, and China. Notably, this occurs without any further expansion or intensification of irrigation beyond current levels, even while greenhouse gas forcing steadily increases. However, the magnitude and significance of these moderating irrigation effects varies across regions and is highly sensitive to the background climate state and the degree to which evapotranspiration is supply (moisture) versus demand (energy) limited. Nevertheless, it is likely that irrigation, alongside other components of intensive land management, will continue to strongly modulate regional climate impacts in the future. Irrigation should therefore be considered in conjunction with other key regional anthropogenic forcings (e.g., land cover change, aerosols) when investigating the local manifestation of global climate drivers (e.g., greenhouse gases) in model projections.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{co07110n,
  author={Cook, B. I. and McDermid, S. S. and Puma, M. J. and Williams, A. P. and Seager, R. and Kelley, M. and Nazarenko, L. and Aleinov, I.},
  title={Divergent regional climate consequences of maintaining current irrigation rates in the 21st century},
  year={2020},
  journal={J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  doi={10.1029/2019JD031814},
  note={Manuscript accepted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - co07110n
AU  - Cook, B. I.
AU  - McDermid, S. S.
AU  - Puma, M. J.
AU  - Williams, A. P.
AU  - Seager, R.
AU  - Kelley, M.
AU  - Nazarenko, L.
AU  - Aleinov, I.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Divergent regional climate consequences of maintaining current irrigation rates in the 21st century
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
DO  - 10.1029/2019JD031814
ER  -

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