Publication Abstracts

Collins and CMIP Modeling Groups 2005

Collins, M., and CMIP Modeling Groups, 2005: El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change? Clim. Dyn., 24, 89-104, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x.

The potential for the mean climate of the tropical Pacific to shift to more El Niño-like conditions as a result of human induced climate change is subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The complexity of the feedback processes, the wide range of responses of different atmosphere-ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) and difficulties with model simulation of present day El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), all complicate the picture. By examining the components of the climate-change response that projects onto the model pattern of ENSO variability in 20 AOGCMs submitted to the coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP), it is shown that large-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean feedbacks associated with the present day ENSO also operate on longer climate-change time scales. By linking the realism of the simulation of present day ENSO variability in the models to their patterns of future mean El Niño-like or La Niña-like climate change, it is found that those models that have the largest ENSO-like climate change also have the poorest simulation of ENSO variability. The most likely scenario (p=0.59) in a model-skill-weighted histogram of CMIP models is for no trend towards either mean El Niño-like or La Niña-like conditions. However, there remains a small probability (p=0.16) for a change to El Niño-like conditions of the order of one standard El Niño per century in the 1% per year CO2 increase scenario.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Collins, M. and CMIP Modeling Groups},
  title={El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change?},
  journal={Clim. Dyn.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - co06100c
AU  - Collins, M.
AU  - CMIP Modeling Groups
PY  - 2005
TI  - El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change?
JA  - Clim. Dyn.
VL  - 24
SP  - 89
EP  - 104
DO  - 10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x
ER  -

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