Publication Abstracts

Cook et al. 2022, accepted

Cook, B.I, J.E Smerdon, E.R Cook, A.P. Williams, K.J Anchukaitis, J.S Mankin, K. Allen, L. Andreu-Hayles, T.R Ault, S. Belmecheri, S. Coats, B. Coulthard, B. Fosu, P. Grierson, D. Griffin, D.A Herrera, M. Ionita, F. Lehner, C. Leland, K. Marvel, M.S Morales, V. Mishra, J. Ngoma, H.T.T Nguyen, A. O'Donnell, J. Palmer, M.P Rao, M. Rodriguez-Caton, R. Seager, D.W Stahle, S. Stevenson, U.K Thapa, A.M Varuolo-Clarke, and E.K Wise, 2022: Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., accepted.

Megadroughts, often lasting multiple decades, have caused major ecological and societal disturbances in the past. While most research has focused on megadroughts in North America, the concept has gained increased international attention in recent years. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era and future megadroughts. Paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the last 2,000 years document the occurrence of megadroughts on every continent, save Antarctica. Megadroughts are often linked to decadal variations in sea surface temperatures, with radiative forcing and land-atmosphere interactions acting as secondary factors. Anthropogenic climate change has already contributed to recent megadroughts in southwestern North America and Chile-Argentina and will likely increase future megadrought risk and severity in many regions. Notably, future megadroughts will be differentiated from past events through higher temperatures, which act as the main driver of increased risk, severity, and impacts. Major deficiencies in our understanding of natural and anthropogenic megadrought processes remain, however. These include 1) sparse high-resolution paleoclimate information over some regions, 2) incomplete representations of internal variability and land-surface processes in climate models, and 3) the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to manage megadrought impacts. Resolving these key uncertainties will be necessary to increase confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and resiliency planning.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Cook, B. I and Smerdon, J. E and Cook, E. R and Williams, A. P. and Anchukaitis, K. J and Mankin, J. S and Allen, K. and Andreu-Hayles, L. and Ault, T. R and Belmecheri, S. and Coats, S. and Coulthard, B. and Fosu, B. and Grierson, P. and Griffin, D. and Herrera, D. A and Ionita, M. and Lehner, F. and Leland, C. and Marvel, K. and Morales, M. S and Mishra, V. and Ngoma, J. and Nguyen, H. T. T and O'Donnell, A. and Palmer, J. and Rao, M. P and Rodriguez-Caton, M. and Seager, R. and Stahle, D. W and Stevenson, S. and Thapa, U. K and Varuolo-Clarke, A. M and Wise, E. K},
  title={Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene},
  journal={Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - co00310a
AU  - Cook, B. I
AU  - Smerdon, J. E
AU  - Cook, E. R
AU  - Williams, A. P.
AU  - Anchukaitis, K. J
AU  - Mankin, J. S
AU  - Allen, K.
AU  - Andreu-Hayles, L.
AU  - Ault, T. R
AU  - Belmecheri, S.
AU  - Coats, S.
AU  - Coulthard, B.
AU  - Fosu, B.
AU  - Grierson, P.
AU  - Griffin, D.
AU  - Herrera, D. A
AU  - Ionita, M.
AU  - Lehner, F.
AU  - Leland, C.
AU  - Marvel, K.
AU  - Morales, M. S
AU  - Mishra, V.
AU  - Ngoma, J.
AU  - Nguyen, H. T. T
AU  - O'Donnell, A.
AU  - Palmer, J.
AU  - Rao, M. P
AU  - Rodriguez-Caton, M.
AU  - Seager, R.
AU  - Stahle, D. W
AU  - Stevenson, S.
AU  - Thapa, U. K
AU  - Varuolo-Clarke, A. M
AU  - Wise, E. K
PY  - 2022
TI  - Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene
JA  - Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.
ER  -

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