Publication Abstracts

Cinner et al. 2022

Cinner, J.E., I.R. Caldwell, L. Thiault, J. Ben, J.L. Blanchard, M. Coll, A. Diedrich, T.D. Eddy, J.D. Everett, C. Folberth, D. Gascuel, J. Guiet, G.G. Gurney, R.F. Heneghan, J. Jägermeyr, N. Jiddawi, R. Lahari, J. Kuange, W. Liu, O. Maury, C. Müller, C. Novaglio, J. Palacios-Abrantes, C.M. Petrik, A. Rabearisoa, D.P. Tittensor, A. Wamukota, and R. Pollnac, 2022: Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nat. Comm., 13, no. 1, 3530, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4.

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Cinner, J. E. and Caldwell, I. R. and Thiault, L. and Ben, J. and Blanchard, J. L. and Coll, M. and Diedrich, A. and Eddy, T. D. and Everett, J. D. and Folberth, C. and Gascuel, D. and Guiet, J. and Gurney, G. G. and Heneghan, R. F. and Jägermeyr, J. and Jiddawi, N. and Lahari, R. and Kuange, J. and Liu, W. and Maury, O. and Müller, C. and Novaglio, C. and Palacios-Abrantes, J. and Petrik, C. M. and Rabearisoa, A. and Tittensor, D. P. and Wamukota, A. and Pollnac, R.},
  title={Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities},
  journal={Nat. Comm.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ci06000g
AU  - Cinner, J. E.
AU  - Caldwell, I. R.
AU  - Thiault, L.
AU  - Ben, J.
AU  - Blanchard, J. L.
AU  - Coll, M.
AU  - Diedrich, A.
AU  - Eddy, T. D.
AU  - Everett, J. D.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Gascuel, D.
AU  - Guiet, J.
AU  - Gurney, G. G.
AU  - Heneghan, R. F.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Jiddawi, N.
AU  - Lahari, R.
AU  - Kuange, J.
AU  - Liu, W.
AU  - Maury, O.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Novaglio, C.
AU  - Palacios-Abrantes, J.
AU  - Petrik, C. M.
AU  - Rabearisoa, A.
AU  - Tittensor, D. P.
AU  - Wamukota, A.
AU  - Pollnac, R.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities
JA  - Nat. Comm.
VL  - 13
IS  - 1
SP  - 3530
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4
ER  -

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