Publication Abstracts

Chemke et al. 2021, submitted

Chemke, R., L. Zanna, C. Orbe, L.T. Sentman, and L.M. Polvani, 2021: The future intensification of North Atlantic winter storms: The key role of dynamic ocean coupling. J. Clim., submitted.

Climate models project a robust intensification of wintertime North Atlantic storms, over their downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean- atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. In this paper, using a hierarchy of ocean configurations, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic coupling (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic coupling (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) in the projections of North Atlantic storm intensification. We show that dynamical ocean coupling accounts for nearly all of the future storm strengthening. In particular, oceanic horizontal heat redistribution and vertical heat uptake, which respectively account for about two thirds and one third of the strengthening, overcome the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes which tend to weaken the storms. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate, and resulting in the strengthening of North Atlantic storms. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{ch06310g,
  author={Chemke, R. and Zanna, L. and Orbe, C. and Sentman, L. T. and Polvani, L. M.},
  title={The future intensification of North Atlantic winter storms: The key role of dynamic ocean coupling},
  year={2021},
  journal={J. Clim.},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - UNPB
ID  - ch06310g
AU  - Chemke, R.
AU  - Zanna, L.
AU  - Orbe, C.
AU  - Sentman, L. T.
AU  - Polvani, L. M.
PY  - 2021
TI  - The future intensification of North Atlantic winter storms: The key role of dynamic ocean coupling
JA  - J. Clim.
ER  -

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