Publication Abstracts

Chen et al. 2017

Chen, K., R.M. Horton, D.A. Bader, C. Lesk, L. Jiang, B. Jones, L. Zhou, X. Chen, J. Bi, and P.L. Kinney, 2017: Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ. Pollut., 224, no. 317, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.011.

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Chen, K. and Horton, R. M. and Bader, D. A. and Lesk, C. and Jiang, L. and Jones, B. and Zhou, L. and Chen, X. and Bi, J. and Kinney, P. L.},
  title={Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China},
  journal={Environmental Pollution},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ch00210q
AU  - Chen, K.
AU  - Horton, R. M.
AU  - Bader, D. A.
AU  - Lesk, C.
AU  - Jiang, L.
AU  - Jones, B.
AU  - Zhou, L.
AU  - Chen, X.
AU  - Bi, J.
AU  - Kinney, P. L.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China
JA  - Environ. Pollut.
JO  - Environmental Pollution
VL  - 224
IS  - 317
DO  - 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.011
ER  -

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