Publication Abstracts

Cammarano et al. 2021

Cammarano, D., B. Liu, L. Liu, A.C. Ruane, and Y. Zhu, 2021: Potential impacts of projected warming scenarios on winter wheat in the UK. J. Agric. Sci., 159, no. 7-8, 511-522, doi:10.1017/S0021859621000903.

The goals of this study are to analyse the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C scenarios on UK winter wheat using a combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs), crop models, planting dates and cultivars; to evaluate the impact of increased air temperature on winter wheat phenology and potential yield; to quantify the underlying uncertainties due to the multiple sources of variability introduced by climate scenarios, crop models and agronomic management. The data used to calibrate and evaluate three crop models were obtained from a field experiment with two irrigation amounts and two wheat cultivars that have different phenology and growth habit. After calibration, the model was applied to fifty locations across the wheat-growing area of the UK to cover all the main growing regions, with most points located in the main growing areas. Four GCMs, with two cultivars and five planting dates, were simulated at the end of the century. Results of this study showed that the UK potential wheat yield will increase by 2-8% under projected climate. Farmers will need to close such a gap in the future because it will have implications in terms of food security. Future climatic conditions might increase such a gap. Adaptation measures (e.g. moving the optimal planting time), along with climate-ready varieties bred for future conditions and with precision agriculture techniques can help to reduce this gap and ensure that the future actual UK wheat production will be close to the potential.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ca09720t,
  author={Cammarano, D. and Liu, B. and Liu, L. and Ruane, A. C. and Zhu, Y.},
  title={Potential impacts of projected warming scenarios on winter wheat in the UK},
  year={2021},
  journal={J. Agric. Sci.},
  volume={159},
  number={7-8},
  pages={511--522},
  doi={10.1017/S0021859621000903},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ca09720t
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - Liu, B.
AU  - Liu, L.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Zhu, Y.
PY  - 2021
TI  - Potential impacts of projected warming scenarios on winter wheat in the UK
JA  - J. Agric. Sci.
VL  - 159
IS  - 7-8
SP  - 511
EP  - 522
DO  - 10.1017/S0021859621000903
ER  -

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