Publication Abstracts

Butchart et al. 2006

Butchart, N., A.A. Scaife, M. Bourqui, J. de Grandpré, S.H.E. Hare, J. Kettleborough, U. Langematz, E. Manzini, F. Sassi, K. Shibata, D. Shindell, and M. Sigmond, 2006: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Clim. Dyn., 27, 727-741, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4.

The effect of climate change on the Brewer-Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models reproduce the observed upwelling across the tropical tropopause balanced by downwelling in the extra tropics, though the seasonal cycle in upwelling in some models is more semi-annual than annual. All the models also consistently predict an increase in the mass exchange rate in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations, irrespective of whether or not the model includes interactive ozone chemistry. The mean trend is 11 kt/s/year or about 2% per decade but varies considerably between models. In all but one of the models the increase in mass exchange occurs throughout the year though, generally, the trend is larger during the boreal winter. On average, more than 60% of the mean mass fluxes can be explained by the EP-flux divergence using the downward control principle. Trends in the annual mean mass fluxes derived from the EP-flux divergence also explain about 60% of the trend in the troposphere-to-stratosphere mass exchange rate when averaged over all the models. Apart from two models the interannual variability in the downward control derived and actual mass fluxes were generally well correlated, for the annual mean.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Butchart, N. and Scaife, A. A. and Bourqui, M. and de Grandpré, J. and Hare, S. H. E. and Kettleborough, J. and Langematz, U. and Manzini, E. and Sassi, F. and Shibata, K. and Shindell, D. and Sigmond, M.},
  title={Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation},
  journal={Clim. Dyn.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - bu03000u
AU  - Butchart, N.
AU  - Scaife, A. A.
AU  - Bourqui, M.
AU  - de Grandpré, J.
AU  - Hare, S. H. E.
AU  - Kettleborough, J.
AU  - Langematz, U.
AU  - Manzini, E.
AU  - Sassi, F.
AU  - Shibata, K.
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Sigmond, M.
PY  - 2006
TI  - Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation
JA  - Clim. Dyn.
VL  - 27
SP  - 727
EP  - 741
DO  - 10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4
ER  -

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