Publication Abstracts
Butler et al. 2024
Butler, A.H., D. Shindell, , A. Bais, E.M. Bednarz, J.S. Daniel, E. Fleming, D. Kinnison, S. Madronich, O. Morgenstern, D. Plummer, R.W. Portmann, S. Tilmes, A.R. Ravishankara, Z. Wang, S. Wei, Q. Zhang, and Y. Zhang, 2024: Chapter 4: Impacts on climate, air quality and the ozone layer. In Global Nitrous Oxide Assessment. D.R. Kanter and A.R. Ravishankara, Eds., United Nations Environment Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization, pp. 87-131, doi:10.59117/20.500.11822/46562.
The Paris Agreement's temperature goals, which require maintaining net-zero or net-negative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, cannot be sustainably achieved if nitrous oxide emissions continue to increase. Improved nitrogen management scenarios provide nitrous oxide abatement that is equivalent to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by up to 235 billion tonnes, helping to reach a long-term 1.5°Celsius (or 2.0°Celsius) goal. The air quality improvements resulting from the improved nitrogen management scenarios lead to roughly 4 million avoided premature deaths due to decreased fine particulate matter and ozone exposure over the next decade, and approximately 20 million avoided premature deaths by 2050. The temperature change due to the reduction of cooling aerosols associated with improved agricultural nitrogen management is likely to outweigh the impact of reduced greenhouse gases in the near-term. This would result in modest additional warming for most of the century, stressing the need to accelerate reductions in short-lived climate pollutants and carbon dioxide to counteract this impact. This is similar to the climate impacts of phasing out coal-fired electricity generation, which leads to aerosol-driven short-term warming but carbon dioxide-driven long-term reductions in warming. Reduced emissions of industrial nitrous oxide, however, would provide climate benefits over all timescales as there are minimal co-emissions. If nitrogen oxide and ammonia emissions were already reduced to meet non-climate policy goals, such as air quality improvements, but nitrous oxide emissions not limited, improved agricultural nitrogen management could provide climate benefits over all timescales. Without additional actions, nitrous oxide emissions would lead to around 0.2°Celsius of additional warming by the end of the century. In contrast, improved nitrogen management with technical reductions and associated livestock methane emissions reductions leads to a near-neutral climate impact by the end of the century compared with a high-end emissions scenario in which minimal action is taken. In the same context, improved nitrogen management with technical reductions and societal change as well as associated livestock methane emissions reductions leads to a 0.1°Celsius reduction in warming beginning late in this century.
Nitrous oxide is currently the most significant ozone layer depleting substance being emitted to the atmosphere. This is because anthropogenic nitrous oxide is increasing, and the Montreal Protocol has succeeded in controlling long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODS). Without additional controls, future nitrous oxide emissions are expected to grow and to cause additional ozone depletion. The benefits of mitigating nitrous oxide to ozone are much greater by the end of the century than in the near-term. Even though ambitious nitrous oxide abatement strategies only reduce nitrous oxide levels in the atmosphere by a small amount in the next two decades, the benefits accumulate over time. Because nitrous oxide remains in the atmosphere for a long time, the earlier action is taken to reduce nitrous oxide, the sooner those benefits will be realised. Ambitious abatement of nitrous oride emissions would avoid ozone depletion over the next two decades comparable to accelerating the phase down of HCFCs, an action taken by the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in 2007. It could be five times this action when accumulated until 2100. Calculated global ozone depletion avoided by ambitiously abating nitrous oxide emissions, compared to unabated emissions growth, by the end of the 21 st century would amount to about a quarter of the peak historical global ozone depletion caused by substances now controlled under the Montreal Protocol. Ambitious nitrous oxide abatement could avoid cataract cases increasing by 0.2-0.8 per cent and squamous cell carcinoma cases by 2.2-9.8 per cent by 2080-2090, depending on latitude. The lowest levels of ozone this century and beyond are expected to occur if nitrous oxide emissions continue unabated and carbon dioxide and methane are abated consistent with climate goals. In such a future, by the end of the century much of the world's population could be exposed to UV levels potentially larger than peak ozone depletion in 1995-2005.
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BibTeX Citation
@inbook{bu02200w,
author={Butler, A. H. and Shindell, D. and Faluvegi, G. and Bais, A. and Bednarz, E. M. and Daniel, J. S. and Fleming, E. and Kinnison, D. and Madronich, S. and Morgenstern, O. and Plummer, D. and Portmann, R. W. and Tilmes, S. and Ravishankara, A. R. and Wang, Z. and Wei, S. and Zhang, Q. and Zhang, Y.},
editor={Kanter, D. R. and Ravishankara, A. R.},
title={Chapter 4: Impacts on climate, air quality and the ozone layer},
booktitle={Global Nitrous Oxide Assessment},
year={2024},
pages={87--131},
publisher={United Nations Environment Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization},
doi={10.59117/20.500.11822/46562},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - CHAP ID - bu02200w AU - Butler, A. H. AU - Shindell, D. AU - Faluvegi, G. AU - Bais, A. AU - Bednarz, E. M. AU - Daniel, J. S. AU - Fleming, E. AU - Kinnison, D. AU - Madronich, S. AU - Morgenstern, O. AU - Plummer, D. AU - Portmann, R. W. AU - Tilmes, S. AU - Ravishankara, A. R. AU - Wang, Z. AU - Wei, S. AU - Zhang, Q. AU - Zhang, Y. ED - Kanter, D. R. ED - Ravishankara, A. R. PY - 2024 TI - Chapter 4: Impacts on climate, air quality and the ozone layer BT - Global Nitrous Oxide Assessment SP - 87 EP - 131 DO - 10.59117/20.500.11822/46562 PB - United Nations Environment Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization ER -
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