Publication Abstracts

Brown et al. 2020, accepted

Brown, J.R., C.M. Brierley, S.-I. An, M.-V. Guarino, S. Stevenson, C.J.R. Williams, Q. Zhang, A. Zhao, P. Braconnot, E.C. Brady, D. Chandan, R. D'Agostino, C. Guo, A.N. LeGrande, G. Lohmann, P.A. Morozova, R. Ohgaito, R. O'ishi, B. Otto-Bliesner, W.R. Peltier, X. Shi, L. Sime, E.M. Volodin, Z. Zhang, and W. Zheng, 2020: Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models. Clim. Past, accepted.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations are now available for both palaeoclimate time-slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (one percent per year CO2 increase, abrupt four times COCO2ncrease), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the Last Interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments, and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{br04300i,
  author={Brown, J. R. and Brierley, C. M. and An, S.-I. and Guarino, M.-V. and Stevenson, S. and Williams, C. J. R. and Zhang, Q. and Zhao, A. and Braconnot, P. and Brady, E. C. and Chandan, D. and D'Agostino, R. and Guo, C. and LeGrande, A. N. and Lohmann, G. and Morozova, P. A. and Ohgaito, R. and O'ishi, R. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Peltier, W. R. and Shi, X. and Sime, L. and Volodin, E. M. and Zhang, Z. and Zheng, W.},
  title={Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models},
  year={2020},
  journal={Clim. Past},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - br04300i
AU  - Brown, J. R.
AU  - Brierley, C. M.
AU  - An, S.-I.
AU  - Guarino, M.-V.
AU  - Stevenson, S.
AU  - Williams, C. J. R.
AU  - Zhang, Q.
AU  - Zhao, A.
AU  - Braconnot, P.
AU  - Brady, E. C.
AU  - Chandan, D.
AU  - D'Agostino, R.
AU  - Guo, C.
AU  - LeGrande, A. N.
AU  - Lohmann, G.
AU  - Morozova, P. A.
AU  - Ohgaito, R.
AU  - O'ishi, R.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B.
AU  - Peltier, W. R.
AU  - Shi, X.
AU  - Sime, L.
AU  - Volodin, E. M.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Zheng, W.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
JA  - Clim. Past
ER  -

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