Publication Abstracts

Box et al. 2022

Box, J.E., A. Hubbard, D.B. Bahr, W.T. Colgan, X. Fettweis, K.D. Mankoff, A. Wehrlé, B. Noël, M.R. van den Broeke, B. Wouters, A.A. Bjørk, and R.S. Fausto, 2022: Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Change, 12, no. 9, 808-813, doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2.

Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland's deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000-2019) climate commits at least 274±68 mm SLR from 59±15×103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3±0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782±135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland's trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Box, J. E. and Hubbard, A. and Bahr, D. B. and Colgan, W. T. and Fettweis, X. and Mankoff, K. D. and Wehrlé, A. and Noël, B. and van den Broeke, M. R. and Wouters, B. and Bjørk, A. A. and Fausto, R. S.},
  title={Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise},
  journal={Nat. Clim. Change},

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RIS Citation

ID  - bo01500z
AU  - Box, J. E.
AU  - Hubbard, A.
AU  - Bahr, D. B.
AU  - Colgan, W. T.
AU  - Fettweis, X.
AU  - Mankoff, K. D.
AU  - Wehrlé, A.
AU  - Noël, B.
AU  - van den Broeke, M. R.
AU  - Wouters, B.
AU  - Bjørk, A. A.
AU  - Fausto, R. S.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
JA  - Nat. Clim. Change
VL  - 12
IS  - 9
SP  - 808
EP  - 813
DO  - 10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2
ER  -

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