Publication Abstracts

Bell et al. 2011

Bell, A.R., B.I. Cook, K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, and E.R. Cook, 2011: Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia: A letter. Climatic Change, 106, 691-698, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0064-2.

Climate information may help smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia take informed risks and reduce their climate vulnerability. Model-based seasonal forecasts are limited in the skill they offer with longer lead times, and in their accessibility to farmers in remote regions. Climate reconstructions derived from tree rings can complement model-based forecasts, providing probabilistic estimates of future climate at an annual resolution. This study demonstrates the skill of PDSI reconstructions derived from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) to forecast a climate signal several years into the future, and illustrates the advantage of such information vis-à-vis the simple strategy of assuming climate to persist from year to year. This work shows the potential for such climate reconstructions to improve inter-annual decisions on Southeast Asian farms, and highlights the social research necessary to transmute this potential into a valuable climate decision aid.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{be05100g,
  author={Bell, A. R. and Cook, B. I. and Anchukaitis, K. J. and Buckley, B. M. and Cook, E. R.},
  title={Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia: A letter},
  year={2011},
  journal={Climatic Change},
  volume={106},
  pages={691--698},
  doi={10.1007/s10584-011-0064-2},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - be05100g
AU  - Bell, A. R.
AU  - Cook, B. I.
AU  - Anchukaitis, K. J.
AU  - Buckley, B. M.
AU  - Cook, E. R.
PY  - 2011
TI  - Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia: A letter
JA  - Climatic Change
VL  - 106
SP  - 691
EP  - 698
DO  - 10.1007/s10584-011-0064-2
ER  -

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