Publication Abstracts

Bauer et al. 2022, submitted

Bauer, S.E., K. Tsigaridis, G. Faluvegi, L. Nazarenko, R.L. Miller, M. Kelley, and G. Schmidt, 2022: The turning point of the aerosol era. J. Adv. Model. Earth. Syst., submitted.

Over the historical period (1850-present) aerosol effects via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, have provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings and played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE coupled ocean climate model version 2.1 (GISS-E2.1-G) using a fully coupled atmospheric composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. The historical (1850-2014) CMIP6 as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) simulations (2015-2100) are analyzed, including the future scenarios, SSPl-2.5, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcing have reached their turning point, switching from globally increasing to decreasing trends, in the first decade of the 21st century. This result is robust independent of which aerosol module or SSP scenario is used. Non-linear aerosol-cloud interactions dominate in magnitude as a forcing agent over aerosol-radiation interactions. Aerosol's ability to counterbalance GHG forcing on the global scale is today at a level comparable to the beginning of the last century. In the 1980s, the decade of largest global aerosol loads, aerosols balanced up to 80% of GHG forcing. As a consequence, the recently observed global warming which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases has been augmented by the effect of a decreasing aerosol cooling effect. By the end of this century, 2100, following the SSP scenarios, aerosols will only counterbalance 0% -20% of GHG forcing, depending on model and on scenario.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Bauer, S. E. and Tsigaridis, K. and Faluvegi, G. and Nazarenko, L. and Miller, R. L. and Kelley, M. and Schmidt, G.},
  title={The turning point of the aerosol era},
  journal={J. Adv. Model. Earth. Syst.},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}

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RIS Citation

ID  - ba03700v
AU  - Bauer, S. E.
AU  - Tsigaridis, K.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Nazarenko, L.
AU  - Miller, R. L.
AU  - Kelley, M.
AU  - Schmidt, G.
PY  - 2022
TI  - The turning point of the aerosol era
JA  - J. Adv. Model. Earth. Syst.
ER  -

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