Publication Abstracts
Bardeen et al. 2021
Bardeen, C.G., D.E. Kinnison, O.B. Toon, M.J. Mills, F. Vitt, L. Xia, , N.S. Lovenduski, K.J.N. Scherrer, M. Clyne, and A. Robock, 2021: Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war results in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, no. 18, e2021JD035079, doi:10.1029/2021JD035079.
For the first time, we use a modern climate model with interactive chemistry including the effects of aerosols on photolysis rates to simulate the consequences of regional and global scale nuclear wars (injecting 5 and 150 Tg of soot respectively) for the ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) light. For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the HOx cycle cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides (NOx), but did not include the effects of smoke. NOx from the fireball and the fires provide a small (5%) increase to the global average ozone loss for the first few years. Initially, soot would shield the surface from UV-B, but UV Index values would become extreme: greater than 35 in the tropics for 4 years, and greater than 45 during the summer in the southern polar regions for 3 years. For a regional war, global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations, but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in our simulations. In-line photolysis provides process specific action spectra enabling future integration with biogeochemistry models and allows output that quantifies the potential health impacts from changes in surface UV for this and other larger aerosol injections.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{ba01700t,
author={Bardeen, C. G. and Kinnison, D. E. and Toon, O. B. and Mills, M. J. and Vitt, F. and Xia, L. and Jägermeyr, J. and Lovenduski, N. S. and Scherrer, K. J. N. and Clyne, M. and Robock, A.},
title={Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war results in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation},
year={2021},
journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
volume={126},
number={18},
pages={e2021JD035079},
doi={10.1029/2021JD035079},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ba01700t AU - Bardeen, C. G. AU - Kinnison, D. E. AU - Toon, O. B. AU - Mills, M. J. AU - Vitt, F. AU - Xia, L. AU - Jägermeyr, J. AU - Lovenduski, N. S. AU - Scherrer, K. J. N. AU - Clyne, M. AU - Robock, A. PY - 2021 TI - Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war results in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation JA - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres VL - 126 IS - 18 SP - e2021JD035079 DO - 10.1029/2021JD035079 ER -
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