Publication Abstracts

Ayarzagüena et al. 2020

Ayarzagüena, B., A.J. Charlton-Perez, A.H. Butler, P. Hitchcock, I.R. Simpson, L.M. Polvani, N. Butchart, E.P. Gerber, L. Gray, B. Hassler, P. Lin, F. Lott, E. Manzini, R. Mizuta, C. Orbe, S. Osprey, D. Saint-Martin, M. Sigmond, M. Taguchi, E.M. Volodin, and S. Watanabe, 2020: Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125, no. 6, e2019JD032345, doi:10.1029/2019JD032345.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4×CO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4×CO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near-surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: there is no indication of a change under 4×CO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

BibTeX Citation

@article{ay01000b,
  author={Ayarzagüena, B. and Charlton-Perez, A. J. and Butler, A. H. and Hitchcock, P. and Simpson, I. R. and Polvani, L. M. and Butchart, N. and Gerber, E. P. and Gray, L. and Hassler, B. and Lin, P. and Lott, F. and Manzini, E. and Mizuta, R. and Orbe, C. and Osprey, S. and Saint-Martin, D. and Sigmond, M. and Taguchi, M. and Volodin, E. M. and Watanabe, S.},
  title={Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models},
  year={2020},
  journal={J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  volume={125},
  number={6},
  pages={e2019JD032345},
  doi={10.1029/2019JD032345},
}

[ Close ]

RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ay01000b
AU  - Ayarzagüena, B.
AU  - Charlton-Perez, A. J.
AU  - Butler, A. H.
AU  - Hitchcock, P.
AU  - Simpson, I. R.
AU  - Polvani, L. M.
AU  - Butchart, N.
AU  - Gerber, E. P.
AU  - Gray, L.
AU  - Hassler, B.
AU  - Lin, P.
AU  - Lott, F.
AU  - Manzini, E.
AU  - Mizuta, R.
AU  - Orbe, C.
AU  - Osprey, S.
AU  - Saint-Martin, D.
AU  - Sigmond, M.
AU  - Taguchi, M.
AU  - Volodin, E. M.
AU  - Watanabe, S.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
VL  - 125
IS  - 6
SP  - e2019JD032345
DO  - 10.1029/2019JD032345
ER  -

[ Close ]

• Return to 2020 Publications

• Return to Publications Homepage