Publication Abstracts

Anderson et al. 2022, in press

Anderson, W., B.I. Cook, K. Slinski, K. Schwarzwald, A. McNally, and C. Funk, 2022: Multi-year La Niña events and multi-season drought in the Horn of Africa. J. Hydrometeorol., in press, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-22-0043.1.

One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Multigyear La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST patterns in the tropical Pacific and adjacent ocean basins often differ substantially between first- and second-year La Niñas, which can change how these events affect regional climate. Here, we demonstrate that multi-year La Niña events favor drought in the Horn of Africa in three consecutive seasons (OND-MAM-OND). But they do not tend to increase the probability of a fourth season of drought owing to the sea surface temperatures and associated atmospheric teleconnections in the MAM long rains season following second-year La Niña events. First-year La Niñas tend to have both greater subsidence over the Horn of Africa, associated with warmer waters in the West Pacific that enhance the Walker Circulation, and greater cross-continental moisture transport, associated with a warm Tropical Atlantic, as compared to second-year La Niñas. Both the increased subsidence and enhanced cross-continental moisture transport favors drought in the Horn of Africa. Our results provide physical understanding of the sources and limitations of predictability for using multi-year La Niña forecasts to predict drought in the Horn of Africa.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{an04200y,
  author={Anderson, W. and Cook, B. I. and Slinski, K. and Schwarzwald, K. and McNally, A. and Funk, C.},
  title={Multi-year La Niña events and multi-season drought in the Horn of Africa},
  year={2022},
  journal={J. Hydrometeorol.},
  doi={10.1175/JHM-D-22-0043.1},
  note={Manuscript accepted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - an04200y
AU  - Anderson, W.
AU  - Cook, B. I.
AU  - Slinski, K.
AU  - Schwarzwald, K.
AU  - McNally, A.
AU  - Funk, C.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Multi-year La Niña events and multi-season drought in the Horn of Africa
JA  - J. Hydrometeorol.
DO  - 10.1175/JHM-D-22-0043.1
ER  -

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