Publication Abstracts
Almazroui et al. 2025
Almazroui, M., M.S. Khalid, M.A. Abid, I.U. Rashid, S. Kamil, H. Siddiqui, M.N. Islam, M. Ismail, , E. O'Brien, M. Asiri, R. Ahmed, S. Saeed, A.E. Samman, F. Kucharski, O.H. Arif, and A.A. Arishi, 2025: ENSO teleconnections and predictability of the boreal summer temperature over the Arabian Peninsula in C3S and Saudi-KAU seasonal forecast systems. Atmos. Res., 315, 107856, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107856.
Seasonal Forecasting of the Arabian Peninsula (AP) Surface Air Temperature (SAT) during boreal summer (June-July-August; JJA) season is essential for socio-economic sectors of the region. In present study, the multi-model boreal summer seasonal mean SAT prediction skill is investigated using Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) and Saudi-KAU Seasonal Forecasting Systems for the period 1993 to 2016. The models are validated against ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The observed maximum SAT variability over the central and northern AP region is captured well by 80% of the models. We further defined AP temperature index (APTI) based on SAT anomaly over the central and northern AP. A statistically significant negative correlation of -0.52 (95% confidence level) is noted in ERA5 between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and APTI. Most of the models successfully capture the ENSO and SAT teleconnections with varying magnitude, except CMCC and DWD models, where opposite relationship is noted. During La Niña (cold ENSO phase) the positive geopotential anomalies over Eurasia strengthen due to the upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific and Eastern Indian Ocean through Sverdrup balance, which favour sinking motion and leads to above-normal temperature anomalies over AP. The opposite tends to happen during El Niño. The deterministic and probabilistic skill of the models are also assessed. Most of the models show reasonable prediction skill in representing ENSO and atmospheric circulation anomalies over Eurasia that modulate AP summer SAT anomalies, except CMCC and DWD. The SEAS5, METEOF, Saudi-KAU, UKMO and JMA models show reasonable probabilistic skill as well as potential predictability (PP) of SAT in the central and northern AP, aligning well with the actual skill during boreal summer season over the AP region.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{al02800e,
author={Almazroui, M. and Khalid, M. S. and Abid, M. A. and Rashid, I. U. and Kamil, S. and Siddiqui, H. and Islam, M. N. and Ismail, M. and Ehsan, M. A. and O'Brien, E. and Asiri, M. and Ahmed, R. and Saeed, S. and Samman, A. E. and Kucharski, F. and Arif, O. H. and Arishi, A. A.},
title={ENSO teleconnections and predictability of the boreal summer temperature over the Arabian Peninsula in C3S and Saudi-KAU seasonal forecast systems},
year={2025},
journal={Atmospheric Research},
volume={315},
pages={107856},
doi={10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107856},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - al02800e AU - Almazroui, M. AU - Khalid, M. S. AU - Abid, M. A. AU - Rashid, I. U. AU - Kamil, S. AU - Siddiqui, H. AU - Islam, M. N. AU - Ismail, M. AU - Ehsan, M. A. AU - O'Brien, E. AU - Asiri, M. AU - Ahmed, R. AU - Saeed, S. AU - Samman, A. E. AU - Kucharski, F. AU - Arif, O. H. AU - Arishi, A. A. PY - 2025 TI - ENSO teleconnections and predictability of the boreal summer temperature over the Arabian Peninsula in C3S and Saudi-KAU seasonal forecast systems JA - Atmos. Res. JO - Atmospheric Research VL - 315 SP - 107856 DO - 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107856 ER -
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