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Unger, N., D.Q. Tong, D.T. Shindell, and D.M. Koch, 2008: Potential impacts of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle fleet on climate forcing and human health. J. Geophys. Res., submitted.
The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, the most important of which are tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that influence global climate in complex ways. We apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the contributions of the worldwide and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors to total radiative forcing (RF) and surface air pollution. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO2 RF (dominated by ozone and black carbon) is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO2 warming impacts. Conversion to Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle fleet will reduce ORT sector emissions but could impose increases in emissions from the PG sector as increased utilization of existing capacity or new electric capacity may be required to fuel the fleet. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a -50% reduction in U.S. ORT emissions with concurrent changes of 0 to +50% in PG emissions. We employ an air pollution impact model to quantify the human health effects of the emissions trading. In all the scenarios that we examine, the net non-CO2 RF of ozone and aerosols is important relative to the CO2 RF. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles synergistically with their health effects.
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