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ABSTRACT

Rind et al. 2009

Rind, D., M. Chin, G. Feingold, D. Streets, R.A. Kahn, S.E. Schwartz, and H. Yu, 2009: Modeling the effects of aerosols on climate, in atmospheric aerosol properties and impacts on climate. In Aerosol Properties and Their Impacts on Climate, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.3. M. Chin, R.A. Kahn, and S.E. Schwartz, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, pp. 64-97.

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concludes that man's influence on the warming climate is in the category of "very likely". This conclusion is based on, among other things, the ability of models to simulate the global and, to some extent, regional variations of temperature over the past 50 to 100 years. When anthropogenic effects are included, the simulations can reproduce the observed warming (primarily for the past 50 years); when they are not, the models do not get very much warming at all. In fact, all of the models runs for the IPCC AR4 assessment (more than 20 here) produce this distinctive result, driven by the greenhouse gas increases that have been observed to occur.

This chapter reviews the current state of aerosol radiative forcing in the global models and assesses the uncertainties in these calculations. First representation of aerosols in the forward global chemistry and transport models and the diversity of the model simulated aerosol fields are discussed; then calculation of the aerosol direct and indirect effects in the climate models is reviewed; finally the impacts of aerosols on climate model simulations and their implications are assessed.

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