Miller, J.R., Y. Chen, G.L. Russell, and J.A. Francis, 2007: Future regime shift in feedbacks during Arctic winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031826.
The Arctic is among the regions where climate is changing most rapidly today. Climate change is amplified by a variety of positive feedbacks, many of which are linked with changes in water vapor, cloud cover, and other cloud properties. We use a global climate model to examine several of these feedbacks, with a particular emphasis on determining whether there are significant temporal changes in these feedbacks that would make them stronger or weaker during the 21st century. The model results indicate that one of the significant positive feedbacks on Arctic surface air temperature in winter weakens substantially toward the end of the 21st century. The feedback loop begins with a temperature increase that produces increases in water vapor, cloud cover, and cloud optical depth which increase the downward longwave flux by 30 W/m2 by 2060 which then increases the surface air temperature.